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The conflict with Iran and the Kurdish factor: a difficult equation for Turkey...
Recent developments in the Middle East are placing Turkey in one of the most dangerous strategic positions in recent years. Ankara finds itself in a delicate balance between two crises that could directly impinge on it: the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran and the growing role of Kurdish factors in this confrontation.
The latest incident clearly demonstrates this risk. The Turkish Defense Ministry announced that a ballistic missile launched by Iran, which passed through Iraqi and Syrian airspace and was heading towards Turkish airspace, was intercepted by NATO air defense systems in the eastern Mediterranean. There were no casualties and the fragments of the munition fell in the Dörtyol region of Hatay province.
However, the very fact that such a missile passed near Turkish territory shows how fragile Ankara's position is. Although Turkish authorities stated that they reserve the right to respond to any hostile action, the trajectory of the missile has raised questions. Some analysis suggests that the target may have been Cyprus and not Turkey, although this remains officially unconfirmed.
But the challenge for Turkey is not only related to the military risk from the escalation between Iran and Israel. A parallel development may be even more sensitive for Ankara: the use of Kurdish factors in the strategy against Tehran.
As the US and Israel continue to strike targets in Iran as part of Operation Epic Rage, reports by American media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and Axios suggest that the Donald Trump administration is considering supporting militias inside Iran. In this context, the American president also held telephone contacts with the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani.
At the same time, five major Kurdish organizations in Iran recently announced the creation of a joint political and military coalition. This unification is seen by some analysts as a development that could be linked to a strategy to increase domestic pressure on the Iranian regime.
This is where the great concern for Turkey begins. A strengthening of Kurdish movements in Iran, especially if supported by the US or Israel, could create a domino effect in the region. For Ankara, the most sensitive scenario is the creation of a vast Kurdish space that would stretch from Syria to Iran, significantly changing the strategic balance on its borders.
This is why Turkey today seems stuck in a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, it cannot openly support Iran in its confrontation with Israel and the West. On the other hand, any strategy that uses the Kurdish factor to weaken Tehran directly affects its security interests.
In this sense, the current crisis is not just a confrontation between Iran and Israel. It is creating a new regional reality where Turkey risks being caught between two fires: military escalation in the Middle East and the resurgence of the Kurdish issue on its borders. If these two developments come together, the pressure on Ankara could become much greater than it seems today. / Pamphlet
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