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Economic growth drops to 3.3% according to the EC
The Albanian economy is expected to enter a more moderate growth phase over the next two years. The European Commission forecasts economic growth to decline to 3.3% in 2026 and 2027, from 3.7% in 2025.
According to the spring report, domestic demand and investment will remain the main sources of growth. Tourism is expected to continue to make a significant contribution, but its impact on the economy may moderate after the strong expansion of recent years.
The Commission attributes the slowdown to external uncertainty and the renewed shock to energy markets caused by the conflict in the Middle East. This is expected to increase inflationary pressures in 2026, while inflation is projected to remain close to the Bank of Albania's 3% target thereafter. The European Commission describes the spring forecast as a scenario of weaker growth and higher inflation due to the energy shock.
Another constraint on the economy remains the labor market. Although unemployment is expected to remain low, emigration continues to narrow the labor supply and may increase costs for businesses in sectors with labor shortages.
In public finances, the Commission forecasts a widening of the deficit in 2026 and a narrowing in 2027. Meanwhile, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to continue declining, helped by nominal economic growth.
On the positive side, progress in EU accession negotiations could support investor confidence and improve the economic climate. This factor does not eliminate the risk of a slowdown, but it could mitigate the effects of external uncertainties on investment and business expectations.
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