FLASH
Shkruar nga Gjergj Zefi
The new leaders in Tehran are taking risks that Khamenei avoided, but Washington and Tel Aviv were also wrong to believe they could weaken Iran without igniting a crisis that now threatens the entire Middle East...
For more than three decades, Ali Khamenei built a clear survival doctrine for the Islamic Republic: to challenge the West, to threaten adversaries, to expand regional influence, but never to cross the line that could lead to a direct and uncontrollable clash. He understood that Iran's power did not lie solely in its missiles or its allies in the region, but above all in its ability to manage crises without plunging the country into a war that could jeopardize the very existence of the regime.
Today, this philosophy seems to be being replaced by a much riskier approach. The new generation of Iranian leaders is demonstrating a willingness to take risks that Khamenei, despite his tough rhetoric, would have considered too costly. Instead of strategic patience, the logic of direct confrontation is emerging. Instead of long-term calculation, quick reactions and demonstrations of force are dominating.
This is not simply a consequence of the change of figures at the head of state. It is a reflection of a deeper transformation of the centers of power in Tehran. After successive military coups and the shocks that the regime has experienced, the weight of decision-making has increasingly shifted towards the security elites and the Revolutionary Guard, institutions that see diplomacy as a secondary tool and force as the main instrument of survival. Western analysts note that the military apparatus and security structures have gained extraordinary influence in the formulation of Iranian foreign policy, pushing the country towards a more aggressive and less predictable posture.
The paradox is that the more Tehran tries to project power, the more it risks its own strategic weakening. Middle Eastern history is replete with examples of regimes that confused the demonstration of resolve with strategic wisdom. Khamenei, for all his ideological ambitions, had understood that regional powers are not necessarily overthrown by an external enemy, but by the moment they lose the ability to control the consequences of their actions.
In this sense, the biggest challenge for Iran is not Israel, nor the United States. The real challenge is whether the new leadership will manage to balance the desire for revenge, prestige, and a demonstration of force with the need to preserve the stability of the state. For in geopolitics, power is not measured by the willingness to enter into conflict, but by the ability to know when to avoid it.
That is why many diplomats and analysts are watching Tehran's evolution with concern. Today's Iran seems more willing to challenge, strike, and escalate. But it remains unclear whether it is equally willing to face the consequences of a strategy that is moving it away from the cold caution that characterized the Ali Khamenei era. And therein lies the greatest danger to the region: not in Iran's power, but in the new leadership's willingness to test limits that its predecessors chose not to cross. /Pamphlet
Nuk me rruhet as per Iranianet qe kishin perandori e erdhen deri ne trojet tona e pastaj moren rruget e mutit nga Aleksandri Madh. Nuk me rruhet as per keta cifutet arabe qe shpiken nje histori fallco si greket se Mose i nderseu ne "Token e Premtuar" nga dreqi e i biri. Sot qe kane zaptuar boten me para kujtojne se kane zaptuar mendjet e shpirtin e njerezve, keta mjerane te planetit. Ta fillojme pastrimin nga mjeranet tane qe te mos na zaptojne mjeranet e tjere.
Analize e dobet e cila nuk merr parasysh asnje faktor social dhe ideologjik ne Iran. Irani eshte fuqi ushtarake, i pelqen apo jo ketij analisti. 45% e buxhetit ka kohe qe Irani i ka investuar ne armatime dhe teknologji ushtarake. Mjete dhe pajisjet ushtarake te Iranit rezultuan me efikase se ato te Izraelit e USA. Irani vertet nuk ka ate nivel mireqenieje si Izraeli (qe i bie qylit me paret e taksapaguesve amerikane) dhe USA, por ka nje po aq te armatosur sa ato. Ne fund te fundit, kjo eshte e gjitha nje loje qe per mendimin tim ka keto qellime: 1. Vjedhjen e vendeve si Kina, Japonia, Asia ne pegjithesi te cilat e marrin 90% te naftes nga lindja e mesme qe kalon neper ngushticen e Hormuzit, vecanerisht Europa dhe Kina eshte fokusi i kesaj "lufte", nepermjet ngritjes se cmimeve te naftes. 2. Shkaterrimi i ekonomive te vendeve sunite si Katari, UAE, Arabia Saudite etj per te rritur dominimin e Shiizmit si ideologji. 3. Per te promovuar dhe nxitur prodhimin ushtarak ne USA, si mjet fitimi per konsorciumet nderkombetare te armeve. Kaq mendoj une
Analizë brilante, por që nuk e nxjerr kush dhe pse e nxori nga gjumi letargjik krokodilin. Thjesht egoja dhe IQ sa e lopës e Trampit, apo shteti i thellë, përkatësisht lobet sionist/financiar, armatim, energji, IA
LUFTEN NUK E FILLOI IRANI. Kjo asht KRYESORJA.Te tjerat vijne ne rradhe me mbrapa. KUSH ASHT SHTET TERRORIST??? Kthim ne histori….Mbaje peshoren ne EKUILIBER!!!Eahh…Nuk ka per te ndodhe VLERESIM I SAKTE deri ne ate moment qe do te marre fund VARESIA NGA PARAJA!!!
Artikull racional. Bravo!