FLASH
Shkruar nga Anna Momigliano
The American president is facing the failure of his maximum pressure strategy. Immediate withdrawal remains the only way to avoid an even greater diplomatic and military disaster...
The American president now finds himself at a dead end, where the only thing he can do is choose the least damage. That is, declare victory and end it there, even if this actually means facing a more arrogant, more savage Iran that controls the Strait of Hormuz.
This is the opinion of Ian Bremmer, a renowned political scientist and international relations expert who also heads the Eurasia Group. According to him, with the constant apocalyptic threats and the withdrawals that have followed, Trump has lost credibility and is not being taken seriously by Tehran.
Does Trump need negotiations more than the Iranians?
For now, Tehran's refusal should not be taken for granted. It should be borne in mind that there is a certain tendency to score points in negotiations on both sides. For example, even during the first round of negotiations, the Iranians initially said that a ceasefire in Lebanon was a prerequisite for sitting at the table, but then went to Islamabad without even achieving that.
In short, they are now raising their voices to convey the message that they do not feel any desperate need to negotiate, but that does not mean they do not want to. However, it is clear that they do not take Trump's threats seriously.
Why is this happening?
Because this is the fifth time Trump has threatened to destroy Iran if it doesn't accept a deal. So far, on every single occasion, he has backed down, and therefore lost credibility.
Do the Ayatollahs feel strong for this very reason?
First, let's remember that we are talking about a theocracy that operates not only out of the instinct of self-preservation, but also on the basis of irrational elements, such as martyrdom and revenge. We are also talking about a government that in January had no problem massacred thousands of its citizens and that now has no problem watching them die under bombs. So we cannot just ratio off in terms of force and power. That said, the Iranians have an advantage.
Which one?
They understand very well what is happening in America. Trump is in a country where there is the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, which often publish secret information about what is happening inside the government. On the other hand, Americans do not have a clear idea of what the Iranian regime wants. We are not even sure who is really in charge in Tehran.
What can the American president do now?
The only thing he can do is declare victory and stop the war, immediately.
Where do his miscalculations come from?
Trump has two modes of action. The so-called FAFO (short for Fuck Around and Find Out - that is, create chaos and then wait to see how things go) and TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out - Donald backs out whenever things go wrong). In the first case he tends to win, while in the second he tends to lose.
In fact, if he stops now, it would be a loss. Especially if Tehran retains control over Hormuz...
This would be the least of the damage. Because every day this war continues, it makes things worse.
Many European, Arab, and Asian countries fear precisely this scenario, that Trump will withdraw, leaving them to pick up the pieces, with a straitjacket in the hands of the Pasdaran...
It's a legitimate concern. But even for them, this would be the least of their losses. At first, various countries would be forced to negotiate with Tehran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, even if at a high price.
While in the long term, the goal will be to find a way to bypass the strait. It is not an ideal prospect, but the alternative is even worse. The war must end. / Pamphlet from “Corriere della Sera”
Trump eshte nje qe, luan lolon i komanduar nga oligarkia e larte, qe te fitoje per portofolin e tij. Me e madhja eshte se i ka hapur vehtes telashe me pislleqet qe ka bere e mund ta cojne ne esfel. Njerezimi gjithnje ka paguar shtrenjte marrine e te marrit.