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The price of Brent crude oil has returned above the $100 per barrel threshold, reflecting increased uncertainty in international energy markets and investors' reassessment of geopolitical risks.
In Asian markets on Tuesday morning, Brent rose 3.75% to $103.69 a barrel, while contracts for US Nymex Light Sweet crude rose 3.42%, reaching $91.55.
The move follows a sharp drop of more than 10% the day before. The decline was triggered by political signals from the United States, where President Donald Trump postponed plans for new attacks on Iran and left open the possibility of a peace deal. Markets interpreted the development as a reduction in the risk of disruption to global oil supplies.
However, the recent price increase suggests that the market is reconsidering this assessment. Iran's denials of the existence of negotiations with the US have increased uncertainty and restored the risk premium to prices.
From an economic perspective, the price of oil reflects a delicate balance between supply factors and risk perception. In the short term, markets react more strongly to geopolitical developments than to structural fundamentals of demand and supply. Any signal of escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East is immediately translated into price fluctuations.
In the absence of new data on global production or reserves, current movements remain largely tied to investor expectations and perceptions.
If tensions persist, prices could remain high or volatile. Conversely, any verifiable progress towards a political agreement would put downward pressure on prices.
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