FLASH
Shkruar nga Gjergj Zefi
Secret US-Iran negotiations are being seen as a signal of a possible American withdrawal...
Of all the wars that America has launched in the Middle East over the past few decades, the clash with Iran risks being not only the most economically costly, but also the most politically fatal for US President Donald Trump.
What began as a show of force to impose American dominance in the Persian Gulf is gradually turning into a crisis that could sink his presidency and shake the very global order built by the US after the Cold War.
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a sea route. It is the strait through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes. Whoever controls Hormuz controls the economic rhythm of the planet. And Iran knows this better than anyone.
Trump’s strategic mistake was believing that Tehran could be intimidated through selective bombing, sanctions, and American military display. But Iran is not the Iraq of 2003, nor Gaddafi’s Libya. It is a regional power with vast asymmetric capabilities, networks of allies across the Middle East, and the ability to turn the Persian Gulf into an economic hell for the West.
Today, after weeks of tension, attacks on merchant ships and global fears of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the markets are giving the clearest signal of panic. Energy prices are oscillating violently, maritime insurance has risen to alarming levels and European economies are feeling the first effects of the crisis. America is realizing that a war with Iran is not won with Tomahawk missiles, but with strategic patience; something the Trump administration has never shown.
The greatest irony is that Donald Trump returned to power promising to end America's endless wars. He attacked the neoconservative establishment, promised economic isolationism, and promised that America would no longer be the "world's policeman." But today, it is Trump who is pushing the United States toward a conflict that could prove more catastrophic than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
His problem is not just military. It's political.
If Hormuz is blocked even partially for weeks, the consequences for the American economy will be brutal. Inflation will explode. Fuel prices will hit the American middle class. Wall Street will panic. And Americans do not forgive presidents when their pockets are touched.
Trump may win television battles with nationalist rhetoric, but he cannot control the global oil market. This is where his political downfall begins.
On the international stage, the damage is perhaps even greater. European allies are showing open nervousness about the American strategy. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are fearing that they could become direct targets of Iranian retaliation. China and Russia are seeing the crisis as the ideal opportunity to weaken American influence in the Middle East.
For Beijing, any weakening of American control over energy routes is a strategic victory. For Moscow, an America mired in another costly war is the greatest geopolitical gift.
But the biggest blow to Trump may come from within America itself. If the conflict is compounded by American casualties, an economic recession, and an energy crisis, then the “strong president” narrative will quickly collapse. Americans can tolerate political arrogance, but not endless wars that undermine their daily lives.
Hormuz is gradually becoming a symbol of the limits of American power. And Donald Trump risks being remembered as the president who entered the Persian Gulf to show strength, but ended up exposing America's weakness in the face of modern asymmetric warfare.
In the end, American political history has an iron rule: presidents can survive scandals, but they rarely survive wars that spiral out of control.
And Hormuz could be exactly that war./ Pamphlet
Në Hormuz fillon ngjitja e MAGA dhe e Donald Tramp.
Ti kot ke humb per analist. Kur ta kuptosh ti çfare po ben USA në dhe me ngushticen e Hormuzit, por jo vetem, atehere besoj do kesh kohe per nje tas grosh.
Si perhere agresoret ikin me bisht nen shale. Ne tere historine e njerezimit asnje agresor nuk e ka gezuar pushtimin por ka ikur me bishtin nen shale ose ka humbur e shkaterruar perandorine si pasoje.