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Merz has only a few months to change course. But his government appears to be on a limited mandate...
Are Friedrich Merz's days as German chancellor numbered? The Berlin leader, just over a year into a post that has followed him his entire career, after a long journey through the wilderness under rival Angela Merkel, sees his position as the country's leading figure and the key figure in the Christian Democratic Union that leads the government as a priority.
The profile of a possible replacement is starting to emerge: Hendrik Wüst, 50, governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, with almost 18 million inhabitants, and which alone generates over a fifth of the German economy, worth more than 700 billion euros. A "state within a state" in the CDU's political stronghold. In 2022, Wust led the CDU to 35.7 percent of the local vote in Westphalia, winning 72 out of 195 seats and forming a local government allied with the Greens.
Wust is governing with impressive approval ratings, and the latest polls, examining CDU support for next year’s state elections, show a strengthening of support for Amin Laschet’s successor. Laschet ran as CDU leader in Merkel’s first post-2021 election but was defeated by Olaf Scholz’s SPD. The CDU is expected to win 34-35 percent in the polls in North Rhine-Westphalia, doubling the threat from Alternative für Deutschland, which is expected to surge from the 5.4 percent it won in 2021 but is currently on 15-17 percent. That figure runs counter to the trend at the national level, where many polls now put the far right ahead of both the CDU and, in some cases, its combined Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. And the reason is attributed by many to Merz's extreme unpopularity and his controversial agenda on the economy and welfare, as well as his difficulty in opposing the AfD on fronts such as the energy crisis, rearmament and relations with Russia.
There are no signs of recovery and many apparently no longer believe that the coalition is capable of changing policies in a way that would bring tangible relief, and so it is not surprising that the CDU/CSU alliance has been considering a leadership change for several days.
A CDU political "conclave" will be held on Monday in Meschede, in the Sauerland region, to cement what Merz called a "new beginning" for Germany and the government. Wust, like every other Christian Democratic governor, is expected. He has promised Merz unconditional political support, but newspapers such as Stern predict that a plan for a leadership change is in the works.
The AfD challenge grows
After winning the 2025 general election and forming a coalition government with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Merz presented himself as the standard-bearer of deep, systemic change for a country stuck in growth and with no prospect of reviving itself as a great power. The reality is of stalled growth, a China problem for German industry, pressured by external competitiveness and challenges, the energy crisis and the so-far unsatisfactory attempt to make rearmament the industrial alternative to the crisis in the automotive industry and other strategic sectors.
Merz has never been a figure capable of presenting himself as an empathetic or inspiring leader, but he has focused on concreteness and managerial acumen, citing the launch of the Readiness 2030 defense plan and the release of large chunks of federal debt for strategic investments as his achievements. Domestically, he has relied on the CDU’s loyalty to his leadership, but his prospects are now bleak.
Moreover, coexistence with the SPD is difficult, and the experience of local government in Düsseldorf offers prospects for alternative alliances, such as the CDU-Greens. In the meantime, Wust has been engaged in personal diplomacy, traveling to Poland, while the CDU is looking to the crucial elections to be held after the summer as a reckoning: on September 20 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD is expected to achieve results close to 38 percent, almost four times the CDU consensus expected. In Saxony-Anhalt, the People's Center ranks better, ranking at 24-26 percent, but here the AfD is on the rise, in the polls at 40-42 percent. The blue wave in the East risks jeopardizing Merz's political stability.
In Berlin, the capital's local elections saw the CDU in the lead, but significantly down compared to the 2021 and 2023 polls. Within five points, from 15 to 20 percent, everyone was there: the Christian Democrats, the AfD, the SPD, the Greens and the left-wing Left Party. A declining CDU anywhere risks structural political problems. And if that were the case, Wust might seem like a more credible alternative. Merz has only a few months to change course. But his government appears to be term-limited./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "InsideOver"
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