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Economic growth in the Western Balkans is expected to remain modest over the next two years, Trend reports, citing the latest EBRD reports.
The region is expected to grow by an average of 2.7 percent in 2025, while in 2026, this growth is forecast at 3.2 percent. According to the report, ongoing global uncertainty and weak EU demand continue to weigh on exports, trade, investment and remittances. Tourism-dependent economies such as Albania and Montenegro are particularly affected by uncertainty in EU markets, while export-oriented countries such as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia face slower trade growth.
Albania
Economic growth moderated to 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the services and construction sectors, while industry and agriculture experienced slight contractions. On the expenditure side, economic activity was broadly balanced, with notable contributions from increased government consumption and exports of goods and services. The current account deficit narrowed by over 40 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting changes in all major components. Inflationary pressures remained low, with the annual inflation rate standing at 2.3 percent in August. In response, the Bank of Albania cut its key interest rate to 2.5 percent in July 2025, the third rate cut since July 2024. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5 percent in 2025 and 2026. Downside risks include the possibility of a softening of demand within the Eurozone, a decline in remittance flows, and adverse climatic factors such as drought, which could continue to negatively impact electricity generation and agricultural production. On the other hand, accelerated implementation of structural reforms and further progress in European Union integration, further supported by the implementation of the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, could strengthen Albania’s growth outlook.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Economic growth slowed to 1.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, supported by rising wages and remittances. Economic growth was constrained by weak external demand and domestic political instability. The current account deficit continued on an upward trajectory over the same period, after almost doubling in 2024. Inflation reached 4.8 percent in July 2025, driven by real wage increases and expansionary fiscal policy. Real GDP growth is projected to be 2.2 percent in 2025, increasing to 2.7 percent in 2026. Significant downside risks stem from a contraction in industrial production, heightened trade uncertainty, a slowdown in the European economy, volatility in commodity markets, and ongoing political tensions.
Montenegro
Economic growth slowed to 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025, mainly due to reduced net exports as renovations at the Pljevlja thermal power plant led to increased electricity imports. Meanwhile, private consumption and investment increased, supported by higher wages and pensions, as well as infrastructure projects, including the Bar-Boljare highway. Strong domestic demand and higher electricity imports widened the trade and current account deficits, with the latter also affected by a decline this year in both tourism and transfers. Inflation rose from 1 percent in September 2024 to 4.5 percent by July 2025, reflecting expansionary fiscal policy and rising real disposable income. The central government ran a deficit due to higher spending and slower revenue growth. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025 and 2.7 percent in 2026. Higher labor costs could negatively impact tourism, and the ongoing reconstruction of the power plant is expected to require further electricity imports. Rising wages, on the other hand, should continue to boost private consumption, with the Growth Plan supporting investment activity.
North Macedonia
Rritja reale e PBB-së u përshpejtua në 3 përqind nga viti në vit në tremujorin e parë të vitit 2025 dhe më tej në 3.4 përqind në tremujorin e dytë, kryesisht e nxitur nga ndërtimi, prodhimi dhe tregtia. Gjatë kësaj periudhe, konsumi familjar u mbështet nga rritja e të ardhurave dhe zbutja e inflacionit, ndërsa ndërtimi i rrugëve nxiti investimet. Eksportet u rikuperuan në gjysmën e parë të vitit 2025 pas një performance të ulët të eksportit në vitin e kaluar. Megjithatë, deficiti i llogarisë rrjedhëse u zgjerua me 66 përqind në të njëjtën periudhë, duke reflektuar suficite më të ulëta si në tregtinë e shërbimeve ashtu edhe në të ardhurat dytësore. Pas heqjes së kufizimeve të marzhit të fitimit për disa mallra bazë, inflacioni u rrit në 4.8 përqind deri në korrik 2025 përpara se të lehtësohej në 4.4 përqind në gusht. Politika fiskale mbetet ekspansioniste, me objektivin e rishikuar të deficitit për vitin 2025 të vendosur në 4 përqind të PBB-së, duke synuar të balancojë konsolidimin fiskal me investimet e vazhdueshme në infrastrukturë. Deficiti për periudhën janar-korrik 2025 arriti në 2.5 përqind të PBB-së së parashikuar, pasi shpenzimet tejkaluan rritjen e të ardhurave. Rritja reale e PBB-së parashikohet të jetë 3 përqind në vitet 2025 dhe 2026, e mbështetur nga kërkesa e fortë e brendshme dhe ekzekutimi i përshpejtuar i projekteve të investimeve publike, veçanërisht ndërtimi i seksioneve të autostradave përgjatë Korridoreve Pan-Evropiane VIII dhe X.
Rritja e investimeve komunale përpara zgjedhjeve lokale në fund të vitit 2025 mund të ofrojë një stimul të mëtejshëm në afat të shkurtër. Konsumi familjar pritet të mbetet i qëndrueshëm, i mbështetur nga rritja e pagave reale dhe transfertat më të larta qeveritare. Rreziqet për perspektivën ekonomike rrjedhin nga kapaciteti i kufizuar fiskal dhe paqëndrueshmëria e jashtme, veçanërisht për shkak të rregullimeve strukturore në industrinë evropiane të automobilave dhe pasigurisë së shtuar globale.
Serbia
Economic growth moderated to 2 percent in the first half of 2025, after two years of strong expansion. The main growth drivers were the information and communication services and manufacturing sectors, supported by the start of mass production of electric vehicles and increased tire production, while construction negatively impacted overall growth. Social unrest negatively impacted trade, hospitality, and related industries. While household and government consumption continued to expand, investment declined and net exports were negative. The current account deficit doubled in the first half of the year. Inflation remained high at 4.9 percent in July 2025, reflecting both rising food prices and rising core inflation. Government spending grew at a faster pace due to higher wages and increased social transfers, resulting in a shift to a small deficit in January-July 2025. Real GDP growth is projected to be 2.5 percent in 2025, accelerating to 3.3 percent in 2026, supported by EXPO-related investment. Downside risks stem from ongoing domestic political tensions and potential global trade disruptions, which could constrain exports and foreign direct investment flows and weigh on structural reforms. However, stronger exports in automobiles and accelerated infrastructure investment could boost growth in the second half of the year.
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