FLASH
Shkruar nga Gjergj Zefi
How oil and trade are being used to force India away from Russia, in a game of economic pressure that produces more illusions than real solutions...
Donald Trump is turning oil into political currency, selling the world a simple equation: America cuts tariffs on India, India gives up Russian oil, Russia is left without money for war. On paper, it looks like a masterstroke against the Kremlin; in practice, it is a dangerous game where the market, infrastructure and national interest do not go hand in hand with the White House rhetoric. The new agreement with New Delhi, presented as a quick win, hides a stubborn truth: energy is not commanded by presidential decrees, nor is it replaced overnight.
India, led by Narendra Modi, is a key buyer of Russian oil because it is economically advantageous and technologically suitable. Asking it to immediately abandon Russia would mean forcing it to pay more, reconfigure supply chains, and take domestic political risks. These are not decisions that can be concluded with a handshake, no matter how strong the American tariff pressure. And this is where the clash between propaganda and reality begins.
Venezuela is being sold as Trump's trump card: heavy oil, similar to Russian, "ideal" for Indian refineries. But Venezuela today is no energy superpower; it is a crumbling industry that barely handles a million barrels a day and that needs years of investment, political stability, and legal guarantees to recover. Lifting sanctions and changing laws are only the beginning of the path, not its end. Without long-term capital and trust, the Venezuelan tap will not open enough to replace Moscow.
On the other hand, Russia and Vladimir Putin are not passive spectators. Moscow has learned to live with sanctions, has built side roads and has used low prices to keep customers. Even if India gradually reduces its purchases, this is pressure, not a fatal blow. The Russian economy may weaken, but it will not collapse with a trade deal.
Trump knows this. But for him, energy policy is an electoral and geopolitical tool: to show voters that he is “punching” Russia, bringing India closer to the Western orbit, and making room for American oil. The problem is that this energy blackmail produces more uncertainty than certainty. It pushes India into double-dealing, leaves Venezuela vulnerable to political cycles, and does not stop the war in Ukraine.
Ultimately, this is an editorial about the illusion of control. Tariffs can be reduced by decree, but markets won’t budge. Oil is not just a commodity; it’s infrastructure, technology, contracts, and national interest. Trump’s bargain with India is a symbolic start, not a solution. And the sooner Washington accepts this, the less the world will be disappointed by promises that sound big but deliver little./ Pamphlet
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