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Shkruar nga Diplomatico | Pamfleti.net
Taiwan between missiles and politics: Is China preparing an invasion scenario?
Tensions between Taiwan and China are once again being textualized on the scale of a military showdown that goes beyond the circumstantial content and enters the realm of strategic signaling to Taipei, Washington, and Tokyo.
The “Justice Mission 2025” maneuvers, two days of military exercises around the island that China calls its province, have become routine since the visit of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022. But the size, area covered and intensity this time show a clear evolution of the Chinese narrative: from the display of military muscle near the continental shelf to practical scenarios of encirclement and blockade.
Ten hours of “live fire” in five maritime and air zones around Taiwan, including missile strikes in the surrounding waters and attempts to simulate the blockade of key ports, are not just exercises. They are a clear message that Beijing intends to demonstrate its A2/AD capacity: the ability to isolate Taiwan, block key logistical routes, and challenge potential intervention by third actors such as the United States, Japan, or the Philippines. When it comes to Taiwan, it is not just a matter of regional security, but also of the stability of global supply chains, because a blockade would affect not only military supplies, but also energy, raw materials, and international freight traffic across the strait that separates mainland China from the Philippine Sea.
Beijing has carefully chosen the timing of these maneuvers. They come on the heels of the US approval of a massive arms package, worth more than $11 billion, for Taiwan, and an increase in Japan’s military and diplomatic rhetoric about defending the island as a necessity for its national security. These are signals that security dynamics in the Western Pacific are far from consolidated, with China using military exercises as a tool not only to project power but also to spread fear and influence the policies of Washington and its allies.
For Taiwan, these actions are provocations that require vigilance and strategic responses, not only from its own armed forces but also from the international partners that support it. For the West, the challenge is to find a balance, not allowing incitement to a large-scale armed conflict, but not sending signals of weakness that China perceives as an invitation for further pressure. For the global world, the future of the Western Pacific is a key indicator of how strategic rivalries between great powers may transform from economic market battles into new scenarios of military clashes.
At first glance, “Justice Mission 2025” is a military exercise. In reality, it is another chapter in the broader Chinese campaign to restore regional dominance, a campaign that requires serious attention and engagement from the international community, before it is too late to restore the balances that guarantee peace and stability in one of the most vital regions of the globe. /Pamphlet
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