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Something concrete and indisputable has emerged from the diplomatic turbulence generated by Donald Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine. It has become Europe's war, in fact, it is unlikely to be America's problem for long.
The Trump administration's twenty-something-point peace plan, drafted by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is going nowhere. When presented with the proposal on Tuesday, a Russian negotiator said President Putin made no secret of our critical and even negative stance on a number of elements.
But the Russian leader’s own words are more instructive. In an aggressive speech that same day, he threatened to “cut Ukraine off from the sea completely” in retaliation for a series of attacks on Russian-linked tankers. This is not a man who thinks about making a deal. Putin is the obvious obstacle.
Britain, France, Ireland, Germany and others have issued lofty statements of the sort “we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.” But this time it is different. European leaders will have to treat Ukraine as the state of emergency that it is, or face the consequences. Currently, they occupy a position that many see as absurd.
Europe, including Britain, is funding the Ukrainian government. The funding, which was split between the Biden administration, has been taken over entirely by Europe. Furthermore, the Europeans pay for all the American weapons through a NATO facility called PURL.
So Europe has an important role in the game - they are paying the bills. But where do they sit at the negotiating table?
They are not there at all. The Russians don’t want them and the US doesn’t seem particularly eager. When US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with a Ukrainian delegation to discuss the peace plan in Geneva, he said he knew nothing about the European counterproposals.
" It's remarkable that Europe is facing this problem, but struggling to be heard. It shows a lack of vision, coordination and leadership across the continent ," says Marc De Vore, of the University of St Andrews.
Former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis is deeply exasperated by Europe's ineffectiveness.
" If you are a European leader asking your team to book you the next flight to Washington to go talk to your dad, please don't do it. Not without a plan, not with a hat in your hand, not humiliating us all in front of the cameras in the Oval Office. Europe is our continent, our future is decided here, not there. We are not poor, we have opportunities, we can finally decide to help Ukraine to the fullest extent... ", he said.
This frustration is also shared by Ukrainians, who have started using another word to describe this relationship, betrayal.
Inna Sovsun is a member of the Ukrainian parliament. Her husband, a military doctor, serves at the front.
"People on the front lines feel really frustrated with the whole situation and it feels like a betrayal. The challenge is much bigger than which village will be controlled by whom in Donbas. It's about what the future of civilization looks like? Does the barbaric version of Russia win? If you're not willing to fight for it, those values aren't worth much, are they? " she said.
Perhaps not surprisingly, analysts and others are sketching out what Ukraine would look like if it were forced to capitulate. The idea here is that Europe will not like what it sees.
Imagine a volatile nation on the border of Europe with a Russian leader represented by Russia, or various groups fighting for control. The population is in turmoil, with thousands of men conditioned and traumatized by war. Millions of refugees seek refuge in Europe.
Economists have tried to put a figure on such scenarios, with one group estimating that the costs to Europe would reach 3 trillion euros in additional spending on defense and refugees if Ukraine is seriously weakened.
For the Europeans, a test of their resolve is now at hand. The EU must agree on a plan to seize up to 210 billion euros in frozen Russian assets as a means of financing the financially struggling Kiev government.
The issue is legally contentious, with countries like Belgium, where most of the money is held, worried about liability. But Ukrainians see it as a simple matter of commitment./ SkyNews
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