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Trump in Asia: the confrontation with China, the real test of his trip
Donald Trump's Asian trip has been filled with formalities, grand receptions and diplomatic praise, but also with real agreements to strengthen trade, diversify supply chains and deepen existing alliances.
However, behind all the fuss and influence that Trump seems to exert in the region, lies a major challenger, a power that no global actor can ignore: China.
Trump and Xi, the confrontation after six years
It's been more than six years since they last met in 2019. The two leaders will meet again tomorrow, a key moment to ease tensions that have damaged US-China relations and rattled the global economy since the start of Trump's first presidency.
This geopolitical relationship is far more complicated than any other issue Trump has addressed during this Asian tour, and for many analysts, this meeting is the true test of the visit's success.
A different China, a different Xi
Today, Trump will face a different Xi Jinping than the one in 2019, more cautious and more prepared in relation to Trump's negotiating style.
After difficult experiences during Trump's first term, Xi has learned not to accept quick deals for the sake of compromise.
Instead, Beijing is playing the same strategy as Washington, meeting force with force, pressure with pressure, and unpredictability with unpredictability. So far, this approach has paid off for China.
At home, Xi maintains his image as a "strong leader," and his stance vis-à-vis Trump — particularly the decision to respond to American tariffs with matching tariffs, even though in some cases they have reached 145% — has been well received by the Chinese public.
China comes to the table with new confidence
This self-confidence stems from several factors:
-important technological advances, such as the creation of DeepSeek, an open-source artificial intelligence system, much cheaper than Western alternatives;
-and a powerful military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region.
-But China's strongest card in the negotiations remains control of the rare earths industry - strategic elements for the production of electric cars, chips, smart weapons and artificial intelligence.
China owns about 60% of the world's reserves and controls 90% of global processing.
In recent weeks, Beijing has tightened export restrictions, imposing a new licensing system that requires government approval for any product containing even minimal amounts of rare earth metals. The law, which is expected to take effect in the coming days, could hit American industry hard and will be a central topic of the Trump-Xi talks.
Faced with pressure, a quick agreement is required
Negotiating teams from both sides have worked intensively to prepare the ground, and a partial economic agreement seems possible, to calm a situation that has become untenable for both countries.
Other topics such as synthetic drug trafficking (fentanyl) and regulation of the TikTok app may also be on the table.
But a long-term political agreement that would restore trust between the two powers is unlikely to happen. Obstacles remain numerous:
-from deep political disagreements over Taiwan,
-the contrast in leadership style — Trump relies on charisma and personal pressure, while Xi seeks detailed process and collective decision-making.
A world in distress, a region awaiting stability
In the background, the risk remains real. As a source close to the Chinese government puts it, “the possibility of an armed conflict is not zero.”
Any step towards stabilization would be welcomed in Asia and the world, but few believe the calm will last.
At a time when the global economy is fragile and regional wars are increasing, the Trump-Xi meeting is more than diplomacy: it is the confrontation of two worlds that are defining the future of the international order. /Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Sky News"
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