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Russia and the Taliban-led government of Afghanistan have signed a military agreement, in a move that signals deepening cooperation between the sides, experts said.
The agreement was signed on May 27 by Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia's Security Council, and the Taliban's defense minister, Mohammad Yaqub, on the sidelines of a security forum outside Moscow, Russian media reported.
Neither side has published the text of the military cooperation agreement nor provided details about its scope, making it difficult to assess whether the agreement represents a substantial change in military cooperation or a symbolic political gesture, experts said.
Agreements for military-technical cooperation can cover a wide range of activities, including arms sales, training, maintenance, logistical support or technical assistance.
Experts said Russia's ability and willingness to deepen defense cooperation with the Taliban is limited by Moscow's ongoing war in Ukraine and the devastating impact of Western sanctions on the Kremlin's finances.
“Russia is economically too burdened to provide free military assistance to the Taliban government,” said Hameed Hakimi, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank.
"At the same time, the Taliban government does not have sufficient funds to purchase such a quantity of military equipment, which would make it a weighty military trading partner in the eyes of Moscow," added Hakimi, who is also a senior research fellow at ODI Global, a London-based think tank.
Any cooperation is more likely to focus on maintenance, coordination or training, rather than large arms shipments, experts said.
Russian analyst Ruslan Suleymanov told The Insider, an independent Russian media outlet based in Latvia, that the agreement is more of a political signal than a sign of imminent military support.
Expanding connections
Russia is the only country to have officially recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. It did so in 2025, four years after the group returned to power following the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2021.
Several countries including China, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan maintain diplomatic, trade and economic ties with the Taliban without officially recognizing their government.
Russia has hosted Taliban delegations in recent years and has positioned itself as a key mediator on security issues in Afghanistan.
Moscow is particularly concerned about the threat posed to Russia and Central Asia, which it considers its strategic area, by militant groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K).
The Afghanistan-based extremist group claimed responsibility for a March 2024 attack on a packed concert hall outside Moscow that killed nearly 150 people, making it the deadliest attack in Russia in the past two decades.
Aleksandr Bortnikov, head of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), warned on May 26 that IS-K remains one of the most active and dangerous terrorist organizations operating in Afghanistan.
Looking for partners from Kabul
For the Afghan Taliban, closer ties with Russia bring diplomatic and practical benefits at a time when the country remains largely isolated internationally.
Engaging with Moscow allows Kabul to signal that it is not completely disconnected from the international system and that it can secure partnerships with major powers outside the West.
"The symbolism of the agreement with Russia will allow the Taliban to claim external legitimacy and create a PR moment to influence public opinion within the country," Hakimi told Radio Free Europe.
Ruling with an iron fist, the Taliban are widely hated by Afghans. Although they have brought some stability to the war-torn country, the militant Islamist group has denied basic rights to many people, especially women, and has been accused of serious human rights abuses.
From Moscow's perspective, the agreement fits into a broader effort to reassert influence in the region following the US-led military withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Moscow has had to present itself as a counterweight to Western policies. During the security forum on May 27, Shoigu reiterated Moscow's calls for Western countries to unfreeze Afghan government assets frozen in foreign banks and accept what he called responsibility for the consequences of their two-decade military presence in the country.
Earlier, on May 14, during a regional security meeting in Kyrgyzstan, Shoigu said that Russia had built a "pragmatic dialogue" with the Taliban and was developing what he called a "full partnership" with Kabul, citing shared security concerns and regional stability./REL
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