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The fragile ceasefire with the United States has deepened divisions within the Iranian regime. Hardliners accuse the political leadership of a "silent coup," while Mojtaba Khamenei's continued absence from the public scene fuels speculation...
The fragile ceasefire with the United States, which soon collapsed like a castle of cards, has not only caused geopolitical shockwaves but also a deep internal crisis in Tehran.
The most radical voices in the Iranian regime accuse the political leadership of trying to organize a "silent coup", while the new supreme leader, Mojahedin Khamenei, continues to be absent from the public scene.
As the clashes have entered their second week, everything indicates that the harder line is gaining ground.
During Ali Khamenei's funeral, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accompanied the late leader's coffin through Tehran. However, the crowd did not just cheer in his honor. Many of the attendees, dressed in black, turned on the president himself, chanting: "Death to the compromised."
A little further on, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had negotiated with the Trump administration a ceasefire and the easing of some sanctions on the Islamic Republic, was forced to leave the ceremony after an angry crowd attacked him with stones, calling him a "traitor" and a "sellout."
The footage highlighted the deep division that now prevails within the Iranian regime.
The hostility towards senior officials reflects a theory that is increasingly gaining support in the Islamic Republic's most radical circles.
According to this theory, the political and military leaders who negotiated and signed the agreement with Washington are organizing a "silent coup", moving the country away from the principles of the Islamic Revolution, while the new supreme leader, Mojahedin Khamenei, remains virtually invisible.
Some attribute his absence to fear of another assassination attempt, while others claim that he may no longer be able to perform his duties.
Hardliners, who attended the funeral ceremony en masse, believe that instead of avenging Ali Khamenei's assassination, the state leadership surrendered by signing an agreement that, according to them, violates the orders of the new supreme leader.
However, Ayatollah Khamenei continues to remain absent from public appearances, has not personally addressed the nation, and has not visibly asserted his authority, although the government continues to negotiate on his behalf.
Rrethet më radikale akuzojnë udhëheqjen politike se po përqendron pushtetin në duart e saj, duke anashkaluar si Parlamentin, ashtu edhe udhëheqësin e ri suprem.
Pak ditë para ceremonisë mortore, deputeti ultrakonservator Mahmoud Nabavian shkroi në platformën X: "Paralajmërim për popullin iranian: Po vjen një grusht shteti?"
Pas varrimit të Khameneit, ai deklaroi: "Në këto çaste, teksa i japim lamtumirën imam-it martir, ngremë flamurin e hakmarrjes për gjakun e tij dhe qëndrojmë përballë grushtit të shtetit."
Me Motxhaba Khamenein ende jashtë vëmendjes publike, kryetari i Parlamentit dhe drejtuesi i negociatave, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, presidenti Pezeshkian dhe ministri i Jashtëm Araghchi janë shndërruar në figurat kryesore të udhëheqjes së pasluftës.
Analisti Arash Azizi, autor i librit What Iranians Want, deklaroi se, duke mos pasur mundësi të komunikojnë me udhëheqësin e ri suprem, hardlinerët tani akuzojnë Ghalibafin dhe Pezeshkianin se po planifikojnë një grusht shteti kundër tij.
Sipas tij, mungesa e zgjatur e Motxhaba Khameneit ka bërë që Ghalibafi dhe aleatët e tij të marrin në dorë administrimin e vendit, çka ka ushqyer akuzat për një grusht shteti.
Pavarësisht thirrjeve të vazhdueshme për unitet kombëtar, ceremonia shumëditore mortore e Ali Khameneit u shndërrua në një demonstrim force nga mbështetësit më të vendosur të regjimit.
Të pranishmit kërkuan hakmarrje për vrasjen e liderit të tyre, i cili u vra në fund të shkurtit gjatë sulmeve ajrore izraelite të kryera në koordinim me Shtetet e Bashkuara, dhe hodhën poshtë çdo marrëveshje me administratën Trump.
Zhvillimet e ditëve të fundit duket se kanë përforcuar qëndrimin e tyre, pasi armëpushimi me SHBA-në u shemb këtë javë, kur Garda Revolucionare ndërmori sulme kundër lundrimit në Ngushticën e Hormuzit, duke synuar të riafirmojë kontrollin mbi këtë rrugë strategjike detare.
Kundërpërgjigjja amerikane ringjalli kërkesat e hardlinerëve për braktisjen e plotë të armëpushimit.
Edhe përpara rifillimit të luftimeve, ultrakonservatorët kishin nisur sulmet ndaj zyrtarëve që nënshkruan marrëveshjen me SHBA-në, duke kërcënuar hapur edhe presidentin Pezeshkian.
Në shënjestër ndodhet edhe Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, drejtuesi i negociatave me SHBA-në dhe ish-komandant i Gardës Revolucionare. Përvoja e tij politike dhe ushtarake e ka bërë figurën kryesore në administrimin e pushtetit gjatë luftës, duke fituar mbështetje të gjerë brenda mekanizmave të regjimit.
Deputeti ultrakonservator Kamran Ghazanfari akuzoi udhëheqjen aktuale se po përpiqet të forcojë rolin e Këshillit Suprem të Sigurisë Kombëtare, duke dobësuar autoritetin e udhëheqësit suprem dhe të Parlamentit. Sipas tij, "ky është grushti i shtetit politik që po zbatohet hap pas hapi".
On Tuesday, Mahmoud Nabavian left the parliamentary committee on national security, along with another MP who opposed the deal with the US. He had previously been part of the Iranian negotiating team, but later turned against the talks, even releasing the text of the agreement to the media before it was signed in an attempt to undermine it.
He claimed that the negotiators had crossed "red lines" set by the supreme leader. These positions are also shared by the Resistance Front (Jebhe-ye Paydari), an ultraconservative formation whose members are often described as "super-revolutionaries." They consider themselves defenders of the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the pro-Western Shah and established a theocratic regime.
Analysts believe that the current political leadership is trying to limit the influence of ultraconservatives. Although numerically few, they continue to exert influence in key institutions, such as Parliament and the state television IRIB, which has launched a fierce campaign against the president.
It remains unclear how much support they actually enjoy in public opinion. One of the most prominent figures in this camp, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, received over 13 million votes in the 2024 presidential election, coming in second. Iran's population is estimated at around 93 million.
Despite internal clashes, the common objective remains the lifting of sanctions.
Over the past few months, Donald Trump has repeatedly described the Islamic Republic as "deeply divided," arguing that internal conflicts make it much more difficult to reach any agreement.
However, despite the public confrontation between the political leadership and the ultraconservatives, most analysts believe that the regime remains united around a single objective: ending the war on terms that ensure the lifting of sanctions and the preservation of Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Mojahedin Khamenei's prolonged absence from public life, his conditional support for the ceasefire, the growing influence of the Revolutionary Guard, and the massive turnout at his father's funeral have given new impetus to hardliners, who now openly call for continued war against the United States and Israel.
Characteristic was the statement of former Foreign Minister and well-known hard-line figure, Manouchehr Mottaki, in a television interview on Wednesday: "My proposal is to strike one of the American bases in the region, where hundreds, maybe thousands of American terrorists are located. It would be enough to capture 100 soldiers and bring them to Iran." / Adapted from "Protothema"
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