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Iran is expected to hand over its response to the latest US peace proposal to Pakistani mediators on Thursday. A page, ideally analyzed to sidestep the dispute, is what the mediators are hoping for.
The White House, not for the first time, is expressing optimism, with President Donald Trump saying he is “positive.” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, also not for the first time, has expressed his gratitude for Trump’s “bold leadership,” thanking him for the “pause in Project Freedom,” the U.S. operation to free blocked ships from the Strait of Hormuz.
We've been here before. Déjà vu and optimism continue to collide, creating unfulfilled hopes across the region. But this time it could be different.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, fresh from Beijing and listening to China stress its priority for peace and stability in the critical strait, is faced with the reality of competing interests now that he is home.
There, some newspapers publish articles criticizing his "failed" diplomacy with the US, telling him to toughen up and wear "combat uniforms" in talks, while others argue that the delays in the agreement are "missed opportunities."
To some extent, Araghchi is a hostage to the hardliners. Their affiliated media outlets have called the US pause in the strait a “withdrawal,” while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Araghchi’s de facto chief negotiator, mocked Trump on Twitter, tweeting, “Operation Trust Me Bro failed.”
None of this necessarily means that Iran's response will be uncertain, but mediators worry that if they can't get both sides in a room soon, they will have difficulty holding the center.
Underlying tensions are high, Iran thinks the US blockade is a violation, the UAE is still hurting from Iranian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday, and Israel is burning a key point of the ceasefire agreement, escalating the situation in Lebanon again by bombing Hezbollah leaders.
Even Trump has warned that he could return to war, saying that if he doesn't "get what we need to get" from Iran, he will "take a big step further."
But if mediators pay enough attention, the fact that Iran's hardliners have ignored Trump's escalation threats so far, apparently preferring to support his concessions in the strait, could be just the light they need to keep the two sides together.
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