FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Negotiations in the Persian Gulf have stalled, as has the war. Washington's original goals of regime change, dismantling Iran's missile arsenal, and dismantling the allied military seem increasingly out of reach.
Negotiations in the Persian Gulf have stalled, as has the conflict. Iran cannot be considered a winner, having failed to expel US troops from some 20 military bases spread from Iraq to the United Arab Emirates, a chain of fortifications along strategic oil routes.
But the United States cannot declare victory either. The same strategic route continues to be threatened by the missiles, drones, and fast naval vessels of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). American bases have suffered significant damage and continue to be the target of sporadic attacks. According to this analysis, they are no longer fully defensible.
The US's initial objectives of overthrowing the Iranian regime, neutralizing its missile arsenal, and dismantling Tehran's allied Shiite militias now seem like unrealized plans.
There are at least seven reasons why the United States has not achieved the intended victory.
1. Assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
Rather than causing chaos and discord, Ali Khamenei's elimination led to a consolidation of the regime. It also legitimized the succession process by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a scenario that had until then been opposed by many political circles and considered an unacceptable family legacy.
2. The assassination of Ali Larijani
Ali Larijani was a powerful figure who had strong disagreements with the more radical wing of the Iranian establishment, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. After Larijani's elimination, internal counterbalances were weakened and a more unified hard-line bloc was created.
3. The Twelve Day War of 2025
The surprise effect, on which the strategy to destabilize the regime relied, had been significantly diminished by the conflict of 2025. After that confrontation, the Pasdaran prepared for a new war scenario. Their order was clear: the Strait of Hormuz was to be blocked as soon as the first enemy missile was identified. According to this analysis, that is exactly what happened.
4. Belief that the “Shock and Awe” strategy would work
Washington calculated that the strategy of massive and shocking strikes, used against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, could yield similar results against Iran.
However, the Islamic Republic had studied the collapse of Iraq for two decades and had prepared precisely to face such a pattern of attack.
5. Using expensive missiles and bombs to destroy the Iranian arsenal
To strike Iranian missile infrastructure, the US used expensive and limited-production cruise missiles and bombs. In particular, the stockpile of JASSM missiles was reduced to levels considered safe within a few weeks.
This made it more difficult to continue operations with the same intensity.
6. Consumption of advanced defense systems
To stop Iranian retaliation, the US deployed sophisticated and very expensive interceptors on a massive scale.
According to estimates cited in the analysis, during the 38 days of high-intensity conflict, the Pentagon consumed about 60 percent of its Patriot missiles and more than half of its THAAD interceptors. At current production rates, replenishing these stocks could take one to three years.
7. Attacks on the entrances to underground missile complexes
A large portion of the advanced munitions, including JASSM missiles and other weapons of even more limited number, were used to strike the entrances to Iranian underground missile bases.
However, according to the analysis, these attacks produced limited results. The damaged entrances were usually repaired within two or three days and the missile launch activity resumed at a steady pace./ Adapted from “Pamphlet”, from “La Stampa”
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