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Shkruar nga PamfletiSerbia has been a candidate country for membership in the European Union since 2012 and, as the largest country in the Western Balkans, has a key role in the region.
The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has published an analysis titled "Trump exposes Vučić's power illusion", saying that the forced sale of the energy company NIS constitutes a serious political loss for Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
The analysis highlights that contrary to the widespread perception that US President Donald Trump often backs down after strong threats, there are times when his pressure proves decisive.
According to him, this was clearly seen in the case of Serbia, which was forced to surrender without the need for any military intervention or direct diplomatic pressure.
According to FAZ, it was enough for Washington to not lift sanctions on Serbia's largest energy company, NIS, to put Belgrade in a serious crisis. With the threat of a fuel shortage and an energy crisis that would directly affect citizens, Vučić was forced to accept the American demands. The majority Russian participation in NIS has long been a problem for the US, as part of its efforts to limit Russian oil and gas exports, including sanctions on Gazprom and the forced sale of Lukoil's assets.
American intervention, according to the author, has significantly changed the balance of power in the Western Balkans, weakening Moscow's influence in the region.
In this reorganization of the energy market, the main winner is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The energy company MOL, which operates under his influence, is expected to acquire a majority stake in NIS, provided that the deal is approved by the American side. FAZ writes that at the moment everything indicates that this will happen.
MOL continues to be supplied with cheap gas and oil from Russia and, with the inclusion of NIS in its portfolio, would dominate the oil market in the Western Balkans. The reaction of the markets has been immediate: after rumors of the acquisition spread, MOL shares rose by about 30 percent.
Orban as winner
The newspaper recalls that Orbán, known for his “illiberal” positions, maintains good relations with both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and opposes the European Union’s efforts to weaken Russia. This closeness to Moscow has caused discontent within the EU, leading countries such as Spain and Romania to block Hungarian investments in strategic energy and transport sectors.
However, joining the NIS represents a major political and economic success for Orbán. According to the analysis, through this agreement Russia remains in the game as an energy supplier, while Hungary plans to challenge the EU's efforts to ban energy imports from Russia in the European Court of Justice.
FAZ notes that elections in Hungary will be held before the court makes a decision and that their outcome will also depend on the question of how long Central European countries will continue to finance the Russian economy through oil and gas imports.
In the concluding part, the analysis focuses on Aleksandar Vučić’s increasingly weak position. The author calls it ironic that his support for Orbán brings Serbia closer to the European Union, as MOL is subject to EU rules. According to FAZ, a single decision from Washington brought Vučić “back to reality”, reminding him that he leads a small country with slow economic growth, fragile institutions and an increasingly rebellious population, which has forced him to promise early elections.
Serbia has been a candidate country for membership in the European Union since 2012 and, as the largest country in the Western Balkans, has a key role in the region. According to the German newspaper, Brussels must preserve Serbia's European perspective, but by relying on politicians who take this path seriously. With Aleksandar Vučić, the analysis concludes, this seems increasingly unlikely, as he has lost not only the trust of a large part of his citizens, but also the credibility that the European Union has given him over the years.
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