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The head of the French army's warning of a "Russian test" of European defense is raising alarms in Brussels, as the EU prepares a war plan until 2030.
In a statement that has shocked European political and military circles, General Fabien Mandon, the new chief of France's General Defense Staff, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in July, warned that Russia could carry out a "military incursion" into Europe within three or four years.
Mandon made the warning during a report to the Defense Committee of the French National Assembly on Wednesday, describing what he called "a future Russian test of European defense."
According to the general, Moscow is reorganizing its forces with the clear aim of confronting NATO, while the war in Ukraine is being prolonged and is expected to continue until 2026. “ My first instruction to the army is to be ready within 3-4 years for a shock that will serve as a test. To think that the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was the last is to ignore the danger that threatens our societies ,” declared Mandon. Instead of a large-scale war, he mentioned the possibility of a limited clash, a kind of provocation or symbolic operation by Russia to measure Europe’s readiness.
According to Politico.eu, “generals and senior politicians from EU and NATO countries have raised the alarm that Moscow could attack the alliance between 2027 and 2030.” Last week, the European Commission published a preparedness plan for war until 2030, which coincides with the analysis of the French security doctrine, which considers a kinetic conflict on the continent possible. However, while politics speaks in alarming tones, military experts are showing more pragmatism.
German political scientist Carlo Masala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, describes in his book “If Russia Attacks the West” a possible scenario: a limited Russian attack on one of the Baltic states, under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking minorities. Along the same lines, Mandon speaks of a “test” that will require Europe to develop new instruments of deterrence and strategic response.
Although Russia is gaining ground on several fronts in Ukraine, it has yet to achieve a final victory after nearly four years of war. A possible end to the conflict would find Moscow in the midst of a process of economic and military reconstruction, not in a position to launch a new major war. This makes the expansion of hybrid and asymmetric warfare, through cyberattacks, disinformation, or energy pressure, more likely than a frontal invasion of NATO countries.
In essence, General Mandon's testimony reflects the opinion circulating in European military circles: Europe must prepare for any eventuality, not to be afraid, but to not be caught by surprise. / Përshtati "Pamphlet" from "Inside Over"
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