FLASH
Shkruar nga Bernard Spitz
Smaller parties will have influence...
The year 2027 is not only a year of great risk for France and Italy, but also for Europe. In addition to the French presidential and legislative elections, parliamentary elections will also be held in Italy, Spain and Greece. The Mediterranean front emerging from the polls will clearly have a significant impact on the evolution of the Union. In which direction? This is the essential question.
Each country faces a unique turning point. In France, the risk of a second round that would pit the extremes of the left and right is high. Whatever the outcome, it would be hostile to the Union, given that breaking the rules of European institutions is part of their agenda. This would mean a return to France’s old statist tendencies, before Brexit, but worse, it would risk a collapse of the eurozone.
Paradoxically, to the great disappointment of those who have been constantly alarmed by Giorgia Meloni's stance, the situation in Italy is less dangerous.
Indeed, power will be contested between a pro-European social democratic opposition and a centre-left opposition, if they reach an agreement, and the current majority, even if one of its components were to change. While often critical of the European Union, Meloni has always respected European institutions, from which Italy is a major beneficiary thanks to the support plan provided by Brussels. At the international level, it has consistently expressed its support for Ukraine. From a budgetary perspective, it has performed better than France. Indeed, while it is trying to reduce the deficit below 3 percent, a goal hampered by the Middle East crisis, the French cannot even come close to 5 percent.
The situation is different in Spain, with a socialist government running again against the Popular Party. Its growth is the best of all, but the survival of the Prime Minister depends on the Catalan and far-left minorities. Smaller parties will have influence, even if they do not have the strength to demand the right to lead the government. The risk of a split with France and Italy is high. In Greece, the decline of the far-left paves the way for the right-wing New Democracy party to remain in power.
These are four countries located at distinct points on the political spectrum, yet there is room for economic and political convergence between them. These are countries with complementary economies, close to European values and the need for a balance with Germany regarding the choices necessary to guarantee our sovereignty.
Four countries, including Italy, have distanced themselves from both North American and Chinese dumping, and all are concerned about the Middle East for geographical and historical reasons.
As is often the case, business has led the way. Trade between France and Italy, at 110 billion euros, and between France and Spain, at 90 billion euros, is at an all-time high. Annual meetings, modeled on the Franco-German Evian Accords, have been established with the Italian Confindustria and the Spanish CEOE.
However, within the Mediterranean bloc, we remain very distant on issues such as energy, technology, space and defense. These are issues that require political harmonization.
The four countries account for roughly 40 percent of EU GDP, a much higher percentage than Germany’s 24 percent. If they unite, this Mediterranean bloc is indispensable. But if the elections lead down incompatible paths, European momentum will be destroyed. If the far right wins in France and continues its rise in Germany and the Netherlands, the European project will be destroyed, as Vice President Vance predicted in Munich last year. That is not what we want.
Even if national issues dominate the 2027 election campaigns, the cohesion of the Mediterranean bloc will be crucial for the fate of Europe and its role in tomorrow's world./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Corriere della Sera"
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