FLASH
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A deal between the US and Iran is closer than it has been in a long time, but that doesn't automatically mean it will be a good or lasting deal. The ongoing military and economic pressure has created a situation where one side believes the other side cannot afford a prolonged conflict politically, while it itself is facing the real cost of war.
Political pain in the United States is growing due to rising costs of living and other economic effects, which could push toward a declaration of success and a withdrawal with minimal conditions that could be presented as a victory.
The potential deal mentions two key elements: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unimpeded maritime traffic and a temporary moratorium on nuclear enrichment. These two points are considered the bare minimum needed to argue that the new agreement is more favorable than the 2015 one. However, military analysts express deep skepticism about the long-term effectiveness of such an agreement.
The Iranian regime has long stated that it does not seek to build nuclear weapons, but the credibility of these statements is very low. There is a real risk that the same cycle will repeat itself: public promises, Western claims of trust, and the continuation of the program under cover.
Further negotiations on the level of nuclear enrichment will be a complex process where Iran can leverage its experience and strengths. Any final agreement would need to be carefully assessed by technical institutions such as the International Atomic Energy Agency to see whether it is actually stronger or weaker than the previous agreement.
Ultimately, we are closer to an agreement than we have been in years, largely for domestic political and economic reasons. But this looks more like a tactical pause than a lasting strategic solution. Without strong verification mechanisms, real transparency, and clear consequences for violations, there is a high risk that we will return to the same situation after a short time.
The agreement may bring immediate relief to international markets, but without addressing the root of the problem, the long-term credibility of the nuclear program, it may remain only a temporary political victory, not a true peace.
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