FLASH
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The DP aims for a recount and invalid votes to secure the 14th mandate in Tirana and introduce Ilir Alimehmet into Parliament...
The Democratic Party is attempting to secure its 14th mandate in Tirana.
The Democrats have demanded a recount of votes in Tirana, with the aim of taking away Agron Shehaj's second term. At the heart of this movement lies a key figure: 88 votes – the number the DP needs to pass the "Opportunity" subject and win its final term in the capital.
To calculate how many votes the DP needs to regain the last mandate that went to the "Opportunity" party, we must use the method of distributing mandates according to the proportional system with the D'Hondt formula, which is in force in Albania.
Current data in Tirana (total mandates: 37):
PS: 230,157 votes – 19 mandates
DP: 164,316 votes – 13 mandates
Chance: 23,650 votes – 2 mandates
Joint Movement: 13,381 votes – 1 mandate
Albania Initiative Becomes: 16,520 votes – 1 mandate
PSD: 14,781 votes – 1 mandate
The last mandate was divided between the DP and "Mundësia", which means that the DP was very close to winning the 14th mandate, but lost by a small margin in the calculations.
To understand how many more votes the DP needed to get the last mandate: We calculate the average quota it needed to pass the "Opportunity" subject in the distribution of the last mandate; Then, we calculate by how many votes the DP would exceed the coefficient for the 14th mandate.
With approximate calculation according to the D'Hondt formula:
The last mandate was won by "Mundësia" in its second division: 23,650÷2= 11,825 votes.
The DP in the 14th mandate would compete with: 164,316÷14=11,737.6
The difference is only 87.4 votes. So, given that we have 16,788 invalid ballots in Tirana, the DP hopes to secure 88 votes and take the mandate.
But the question that arises now is: will the fate of the last mandate be decided at the CEC table? And more specifically: will Ilirjan Celibashi do another "koke" to Sali Berisha?
So far, the head of the CEC has been accused by various segments of controversial positions. Initially, for not certifying the electronic result in Vora, which was blocked without a convincing reason, despite the fact that the voting system did not produce any technical anomalies. Then, Celibashi chose to have the votes of the diaspora from Greece – which potentially affected the distribution of mandates – counted at the end, and not together with the rest of the votes abroad.
The recount in Tirana is a moment similar to 2011, when Arben Ristani, at the head of the CEC, overturned the result of the elections for the Municipality of Tirana, giving Lulzim Basha a landslide victory over Edi Rama. So for Berisha to achieve his goal, the CEC must come into play first, but also the SP. In short, a Rama-Berisha-Celibashi bargain. We must wait and see. /Pamphlet
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