FLASH
Shkruar nga Fabien Gibault
After three years in power without major difficulties, Giorgia Meloni's government is facing its first serious period of political pressure, both domestically and in foreign policy.
The so-called center-right government of Giorgia Meloni has already entered Italian political history as the second-longest-lasting government of the country's republican era. This durability is linked both to a loyal electorate, with Fratelli d'Italia still maintaining around 30% in the polls, and to a more moderate political line than expected, which has limited criticism from the opposition.
However, the defeat in the referendum on justice held on 22–23 March 2026 has brought inevitable political and psychological consequences, both for the voters and for the figure of the Prime Minister, who until now was seen as almost untouchable. This result should not be interpreted through the attitude of the right-wing electorate, which remains largely loyal to her, but through the mobilization of the opposition electorate, the left and the Five Star Movement, which, through the victory of the “No” camp, has understood that a majority can be achieved if the opposition acts united and with a clear program.
In recent weeks, Giorgia Meloni has lost some of the political stability that characterized her and the foundations that guaranteed her dominance on the Italian political scene have begun to shake. The Prime Minister must now account for some of her previous choices and correct certain political strategies.
Trump, from ally to political burden
Giorgia Meloni had aimed to position herself as a bridge between Europe and the United States. During the time of Joe Biden, her privileged relationship with the White House was seen positively, but the situation changed significantly with the return of Donald Trump. The relationship with Trump has been increasingly perceived as an obstacle to Italy's diplomatic cooperation with its main European partners.
Donald Trump has significantly destabilized the international order and has become a problematic ally in the context of European unity on international issues, especially regarding support for Ukraine.
However, in this respect, the situation remains relative: the Italian government as a whole, with the exception of Matteo Salvini, has consistently condemned Russia's aggression against Ukraine. This has brought support from more moderate voters, but at the same time has created dissatisfaction among the more sovereignist segment of the electorate, often closer to pro-Russian positions.
Contrary to her pro-European image, Giorgia Meloni's support for Viktor Orbán during the parliamentary elections in Hungary did not help improve relations with moderate or progressive political forces within the European Union.
Meloni u përpoq të ruante një ekuilibër politik dhe elektoral: të mbetej besnike ndaj aleatëve të saj politikë, si Viktor Orbán, pa u shkëputur nga linja pro-Ukrainës e mbrojtur nga Bashkimi Evropian. Por kjo strategji, e ndërtuar për të kënaqur njëkohësisht elektoratin sovranist dhe partnerët evropianë, ka dhënë rezultate të kufizuara në raport me aleatët kryesorë të Italisë.
Kjo përbën një rrezik real për ekonominë italiane, e cila vazhdon të ketë rritje të dobët, rreth 0.5 %, dhe ka nevojë më shumë se kurrë për besimin e partnerëve të saj ekonomikë.
Italia mbetet një ekonomi transformuese, ku rritja e kostove të energjisë ndikon drejtpërdrejt në prodhim dhe konkurrueshmëri. Pa marrëdhënie të privilegjuara me vendet fqinje, Italia mund të përballet me mungesë lëndësh të para ose me tepricë produktesh të pashitura për shkak të çmimeve të larta.
Në këtë kontekst, Giorgia Meloni kishte nevojë për një mënyrë për t’u distancuar gradualisht nga marrëdhënia e saj me Donald Trump dhe për të rindërtuar lidhjet me partnerët kryesorë evropianë. Përplasja verbale mes Presidentit amerikan dhe Papa Leo XIV i krijoi asaj një mundësi të papritur për t’u larguar nga një aleancë që po bëhej gjithnjë e më e sikletshme.
Si pasojë, Meloni mori distancë nga administrata amerikane, duke u afruar më shumë me linjën politike të mbështetur nga drejtuesit kryesorë të Bashkimit Evropian.
Megjithatë, situata mbetet e ndërlikuar për Italinë, pasi vendi strehon dy baza të rëndësishme ushtarake amerikane, thelbësore për operacionet në Lindjen e Afërt dhe Lindjen e Mesme, veçanërisht bazën Sigonella në Sicili. Kjo prani ushtarake e ekspozon Italinë ndaj rreziqeve të mundshme të hakmarrjes, sidomos për shkak të pranisë në të njëjtën hapësirë strategjike të sistemit satelitor MUOS të Marinës amerikane.
Giorgia Meloni dëshiron të distancohet nga Donald Trump, por njëkohësisht duhet të ruajë marrëdhënie funksionale me administratën amerikane për të vlerësuar rreziqet që mund të përballet Italia në kushtet e përshkallëzimit ushtarak në Lindjen e Mesme.
Ajo duhet gjithashtu të përballet me pasojat politike të mbështetjes për Viktor Orbán gjatë zgjedhjeve të fundit hungareze. Megjithatë, sovranistët italianë e paraqesin këtë si një problem relativ, duke argumentuar se fituesi i zgjedhjeve në Hungari mbetet sërish pjesë e së djathtës evropiane.
Mes një shumice të brishtë dhe një opozite të ringjallur
Liderja e Fratelli d’Italia duhet të menaxhojë edhe aleatët brenda koalicionit qeverisës. Referendumi për drejtësinë ishte promovuar kryesisht nga Forza Italia, partia e themeluar nga Silvio Berlusconi, dhe dështimi i reformës e vendos Giorgia Melonin në një pozitë të vështirë përballë Ministrit të Jashtëm Antonio Tajani.
Meanwhile, Matteo Salvini continues to seek media attention, but his efforts to return to the center of political debate often prove ineffective or even harmful to the government. His thinly veiled support for Vladimir Putin remains a persistent problem for the coalition.
Although Giorgia Meloni is not yet facing a major political crisis, her allies could become a burden if the current trend continues. This situation, unprecedented since the Fratelli d'Italia came to power, has given new energy to the opposition: the victory of the "No" camp in the referendum showed that the Italian sovereigntist right is not invincible.
However, winning a referendum is something different from building a common governing program among various opposition forces.
However, a more optimistic climate seems to be returning to the opposition camp. Even the centrist parties, Carlo Calenda's Azione and Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva, appear more willing to discuss a broad coalition.
However, it remains difficult to imagine a long-term agreement between such different political forces. Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement opposes military support for Ukraine and some European Union orientations, while Carlo Calenda has publicly emerged as one of Kiev's staunchest supporters.
A rising new figure on the Italian left could play a key role in uniting the opposition. Silvia Salis, the current mayor of Genoa, is seen as a politician with the potential to unite the progressive camp.
However, the challenge remains great. Previous experiences of broad center-left coalitions in Italy, from L'Ulivo to Romano Prodi's L'Unione, have shown how difficult it is to hold together very different political forces. Prodi's second government, formed in 2006, lasted less than two years.
Giorgia Meloni has undoubtedly entered a new political phase, but not necessarily one of immediate weakness. Domestically, she seems determined to maintain the strategy that brought her to power: a controlled right-wing coalition, a pacified sovereignist electorate, and a more institutional and moderate image than initially expected.
On the international front, however, the correction seems deeper. The relationship with Donald Trump and open support for Viktor Orbán have shown their limits at a time when Italy needs European credibility and economic stability.
Giorgia Meloni is not giving up her political identity, but she seems forced to rebalance the way it is expressed: less public closeness to the most problematic allies and more European centrism.
Meloni's new phase does not seem like the beginning of an immediate political decline, but rather a period of necessary adjustment. /Adapted from iris-france.org/
Lini një Përgjigje