FLASH
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The world is facing "two blows at once": the impact of the war with Iran, which has raised food prices to their highest level in three years, and the effects of extreme weather associated with the El Niño phenomenon.
A strong El Niño phenomenon could trigger a new wave of rising food prices globally, with the consequences lasting until the second half of 2028, economists warn.
According to experts, the world is facing "two blows at once": the impact of the war with Iran, which has raised food prices to the highest level in the last three years, and the effects of extreme weather related to the El Niño phenomenon.
Scientists estimate that the 2026-2027 El Niño cycle has an unprecedented chance of becoming one of the strongest ever recorded.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that there is a 63% probability that Pacific surface temperatures will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above normal this year.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that a "Super El Niño" could increase global food commodity prices by about 15.8%, while in the Eurozone food prices could increase by an average of 1.3%.
According to them, the full impact will be felt gradually and could last until 2028, due to the cycles of planting, harvesting and distribution of agricultural products.
Experts point out that El Niño does not affect all regions equally. Some areas are expected to face severe droughts, while others will face flooding, damaging agricultural production and supply chains.
Lower-income countries, already hit by rising costs as a result of the conflict with Iran, are considered the most at risk.
According to economists, the combination of extreme weather, fertilizer shortages and higher energy costs could put strong pressure on global inflation and force central banks to keep interest rates high for longer.
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