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IMF lowers forecast from 3.8 percent to 3.4 percent...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has debunked the government's propaganda that Albania is booming economically.
In its latest Global Economic Outlook report, the IMF has lowered its forecast for the country's economic growth in 2025 to 3.4%, from the 3.8% expected in the spring. This is a blow to the government's narrative of sustainable growth and successful economic management.
While the region continues to move at higher rates, such as Kosovo, which is expected to have a 3.9% growth in 2025, Albania seems to be losing momentum. Even countries like North Macedonia and Serbia are approaching or exceeding the Albanian pace.
The IMF also raises concerns about inflation, which is expected to rise to 2.3% in 2025 and reach 2.8% in 2026. Rising prices, in a context of economic slowdown, is a dangerous combination that further complicates living conditions for citizens and makes fiscal policy more challenging for the government.
Even more critical is the warning about rising debt and the need to cut spending. The IMF emphasizes that "governments will need to cut spending, particularly in Europe, due to additional costs associated with an aging population, increased defense spending, and energy security." Albania, with a public debt that remains high and an unsustainable public spending structure, is undoubtedly in this group.
"It's not as bad as we feared, but it's worse than we expected a year ago, and worse than it should be," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, best describing the gloomy economic atmosphere.
The International Monetary Fund has also sounded the alarm for the global economy, warning that growing pressures from protectionism and broad tariffs imposed by the US are starting to have their effects, although so far growth has proven more stable than expected.
In the latest World Economic Outlook report, published Tuesday by the IMF headquarters in Washington, the forecast for global growth has been slightly improved for 2025 to 3.2%, from 3% in July. But the hope is short-lived: in 2026, the pace is expected to slow to 3.1%.
The IMF explains that the improvement for this year comes mainly from short-term factors, such as “pre-supply to businesses and consumers ahead of the new tariffs taking effect” and a “weakening of the US dollar that has helped exports.” However, the long term remains uncertain, with warnings that the global economy is facing “dim prospects.”
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