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Shkruar nga Diplomatico | Pamfleti.net
If Tehran decides to close the strategic strait through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, energy markets could be plunged into a new crisis, while the US and its allies face unprecedented economic pressure...
The Strait of Hormuz is just a thin line on a map, but in reality it is one of the main nerves of the global economy. Every day, about 20 million barrels of oil and a large part of the liquefied gas that supplies Asian and European markets pass through this narrow sea route between Iran and Oman. This means that about a fifth of the energy consumed by the world passes through this maritime corridor. And it is precisely this nerve center that Tehran considers its strongest weapon in the face of Western pressure.
Whenever tensions rise between Iran and the US or Israel, the familiar threat immediately comes to the fore: the closure of Hormuz.
For Iran, this is not just rhetoric. The Revolutionary Guard has invested for years in a maritime strategy that includes coastal missiles, naval mines, drones and a small fleet of fast boats capable of hitting oil tankers. It doesn't take a classic war to paralyze this energy corridor; the increased risk to shipping is enough for companies and insurers to back off, effectively blocking traffic.
In such a scenario, the domino effect would be immediate. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates export most of their energy through Hormuz. If this channel were closed, millions of barrels of oil a day would disappear from the global market within hours. Energy prices would explode, and the inflation that still weighs on Western economies would take a new hit. For the industrial economies of Europe and the giant economies of Asia, this would be an immediate supply crisis.
This is why Hormuz is considered one of the most strategic “choke points” on the planet. It is a corridor that cannot be easily replaced. Several alternative pipelines exist, but their capacity is much smaller than the volume that passes through this strait every day. In other words, if Hormuz is seriously blocked, the world has no quick plan B.
From the Iranian perspective, this is the card that evens out the military imbalance with the West. The US may have clear superiority in the air and at sea, but Iran has a way of creating a global crisis that would directly hit the economies of countries that challenge it. By threatening global energy supplies, Tehran sends a simple message: any military escalation against Iran will have a price that the entire world will pay.
However, even this weapon has its limits. A prolonged blockade of Hormuz would also hit Iran itself, which also exports oil through the same route and relies on this revenue for its fragile economy. That is why many analysts see the threat more as an instrument of pressure than as a strategy that can be implemented over the long term.
But even as a threat, Hormuz remains an extraordinarily destabilizing factor. Whenever tensions in the Middle East escalate, global markets react immediately. Investors, governments, and energy companies know that a single incident in this strait can shake the global economy within days.
In this game of nerves between Tehran and the West, Hormuz is not just a sea route. It is the geopolitical lever that gives Iran the power to threaten the heart of the global energy system. And as long as this strait remains exposed to tensions, energy markets will always live with the fear that a new crisis could erupt from one of the smallest but most strategic points on the planet./ Pamphlet
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