FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Ukraine has six months to wrest back the initiative from Russia and strengthen its position ahead of possible peace talks, a senior commander told Reuters, predicting it is approaching a "turning point" after more than four years of war.
Russian forces have made significant advances since their full-scale invasion in February 2022, but their advance into Ukrainian territory has slowed this year, with Kiev forces increasing pressure on the battlefield to stop them.
Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, commander of the Ukrainian Third Army Corps, one of the most experienced military corps, said the Russian army is tired and unable to make major advances.
"If Ukrainian forces maintain their momentum for several months, they could gain the initiative along the front and force Russia to abandon plans for the last part of the Donetsk region it does not yet control," Biletsky said.
Critical months ahead
Russia is facing additional problems from Elon Musk's decision not to provide Russian forces with access to Starlink. Kiev, for its part, has increased its attacks with medium-range drones, which weaken Russian air defenses, facilitating long-range attacks on military facilities and oil depots.
Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had regained about 600 square kilometers of territory by 2026. Moscow now controls almost 20% of Ukraine.
Analysts say fatigue remains a problem for Russian forces, while Ukraine faces a personnel shortage. The US Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces are “actively challenging the static nature of warfare” and could soon conduct limited mechanized attacks.
The "Castle Area" and its strategic location
Russian forces are concentrated in eastern Ukraine's "Fortress Zone," where fighting is fierce around the strategic town of Kostyantynivka. The heavily fortified towns form the backbone of Ukraine's defenses.
Biletsky said his forces are holding the front around Sloviansk and forcing Russia to attack the city directly. The costly offensives have exhausted Russian forces and inflicted heavy casualties on field commanders, in a process that Biletsky described as a "professional digestion" of the Russian military.
Technological balance and military improvement
Moscow is losing out “radically” in battlefield communications due to the limitations of Musk’s Starlink. At the same time, Ukraine is ahead in unmanned ground vehicles and heavy bomber drones, while Russia is ahead in fiber-optic drones, which cannot be fooled.
The Army's Third Corps is leading the training and integration of new technologies, such as unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), which are replacing a portion of the infantry with a target of 30% by 2027. Units are using stealthy drones and robots armed with machine guns and rocket launchers, allowing for more creative combined-arms attacks while saving military personnel.
“This will happen this year, and I believe our corps is a living example of this strategy ,” said Biletsky.
Lini një Përgjigje