FLASH
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The investigation into the assassination of Vadim Ermolaev expands beyond the Principality and combines geopolitics, criminal networks and shadow warfare…
The assassination that shook the Principality of Monaco is increasingly taking on the dimensions of an international affair. A few days after the explosion that seriously injured Ukrainian oligarch Vadim Ermolaev, his wife and their 13-year-old son, investigators in Monaco and France are following several leads, none of which have been confirmed so far.
Among them is the possibility that the perpetrator of the attack passed through Italy during his escape, while in the background two very different scenarios remain: a settling of scores related to economic crime or an operation that could be linked to Ukrainian security services.
Monaco authorities initially said it was not a terrorist attack but a premeditated murder. The explosive device, hidden in a bag containing bolts and metal balls, was placed in the lobby of the family's mansion shortly before they returned home. Security camera footage shows a man running away after leaving his backpack behind. An international operation to capture him has since been launched.
The suspect's escape and the hypothesis of crossing into Italy
According to preliminary investigations and recent information, investigators believe the suspect fled Monaco in a hurry immediately after the explosion. The first escape is believed to have been to neighboring France, but the investigation is also expanding to Italy, which is considered one of the possible routes used to evade search.
The verifications involve French, Monegasque and Italian authorities within the framework of international judicial cooperation. So far, no elements have been made public that would confirm with certainty the itinerary followed by the wanted person, but the Italian track remains one of the directions being investigated.
The attack also hit one of the countries traditionally considered among the safest in Europe. The Principality's Minister of State, Christophe Mirmand, called the event an unprecedented episode in Monaco's recent history, while Prince Albert II condemned what he described as a "despicable act."
Criminal call center networks or Ukrainian secret services
The investigation is currently focused on two main hypotheses, international media report . The first leads to organized crime. According to some reconstructions of the event, Ermolaev may have been linked, directly or indirectly, to a complex network of companies that have ended up under investigation for suspected relations with fraudulent networks of telephone centers ("call centers") developed in the Dnipro area. In this scenario, the assassination could represent a settling of scores within criminal circles characterized by large international financial flows.
The second track is significantly more sensitive from a geopolitical point of view. Some investigators are also considering the possibility that the attack was part of an operation linked to Ukrainian intelligence. Ermolaev was sanctioned in 2023 by the authorities in Kiev for suspected economic activities in the territories occupied by Russia. The charges mainly relate to his business interests in Crimea after the Russian annexation.
However, no authority has officially attributed the attack to Ukrainian secret services and this remains, at the current state of the investigation, only one of the hypotheses being examined.
Why was it a sensitive target?
Vadim Ermolaev is one of the most famous entrepreneurs of Dnipro in post-Soviet Ukraine. The founder of the Alef group, he built his fortune in the real estate, trade, agriculture and winemaking sectors, becoming an influential figure in the Ukrainian economy.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he eventually settled in the Principality of Monaco, where other wealthy Ukrainian businessmen also lived.
However, his position had become controversial. Authorities in Kiev stripped him of his Ukrainian citizenship and imposed sanctions on him, accusing him of economic ties with occupied Crimea. Ermolaev has always denied these accusations, but his figure has remained at the center of political and economic controversy.
For investigators, the motive for the assassination remains the main focus of the case. Investigations are continuing in several directions and, to this point, neither the track of organized crime nor that of a possible operation linked to the Ukrainian secret services can be considered dominant or proven.
The only certain fact is that the assassination represents one of the most serious episodes of violence ever recorded in the Principality of Monaco and that its unraveling will require close investigative cooperation between several European countries. / Pamphlet /
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