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Nuclear expert Avner Cohen commented on the situation after the war between Israel, the US and Iran. During an interview with La Repubblica, the expert said that this war brought nothing, emphasizing that Iran is more or less in the same situation it was in before the war.
"We are not in a good place at the moment. This war brought nothing: there was no improvement either from the Israeli point of view or from the non-proliferation point of view. Iran is more or less in the same situation as it was before the war. However, there is an ongoing negotiation, although currently blocked, and everything will depend on its outcome."
According to him, in the best-case scenario, the United States could reach an agreement similar to the JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal signed during the Obama administration and from which Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.
"I don't think there will be any major improvements unless the US manages to get the uranium out of Iran. But right now I don't think Iran is willing to accept that," he said.
Cohen estimates that the involvement of Russia or China in such a process is unlikely.
"If Russia were to agree to get involved, it would only do so to promote Russian-Iranian interests, not those of the US and Israel. The same goes for China. So I don't believe it's a realistic hypothesis."
The expert added that the Iranian nuclear threat remains at the same level as in June 2025.
“ If Iran has managed to recover the 60% enriched uranium that was buried during the bombings of 2025, then it could produce something similar to a bomb in a short time, perhaps within weeks. It would be a very rudimentary device. But the question remains the same as in June 2025: do they really want to do this? The war didn’t change much.”
Asked if the war was a failure, Cohen said:
“From Israel’s perspective it was a gamble: the hope was the fall of the Iranian regime. And that didn’t happen. You could say that the Iranian economy is in crisis, but not that the regime is falling. So the gamble didn’t work.”
He added that it is still too early to understand the political impact this situation could have on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2026 election year.
"Netanyahu hoped to gain support from this war and he didn't. On the contrary, he currently comes out weaker, because Iran has not been defeated," he said.
Note: Avner Cohen, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, is a well-known name in the international community of nuclear scholars. The Israeli-American is known for his studies on nuclear nonproliferation, but especially for his analysis of the Israeli nuclear program, covered in books such as “Israel and the Bomb” and “The World’s Least Kept Secret: Israel and the Nuclear Bet.”
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