FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The election result in Hungary, where Péter Magyar's political movement shook up Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, has behind-the-scenes implications that are directly related to international geopolitical developments. According to security expert Ilir Kulla, Orbán's fall is not an isolated phenomenon, but the consequence of an economic and political shockwave stemming from the conflict in Iran and the policies of Donald Trump.
In his analysis for the show "Të Pashoj" on Pamflet's YouTube channel, Kulla describes Orban as the "second victim" of this situation, placing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who recently distanced herself from Trump and the war, first.
The main cause of this political upheaval, according to the expert, is rampant inflation. He emphasized that the strongest blow to Orban's government came from rural areas and the agricultural sector, traditionally strongholds of his party, Fidesz.
Kulla draws a parallel with the political situation in Europe four years ago, when the war in Ukraine and the ensuing inflation “cleansed” a large part of the political class on the continent. He argues that inflation functions like a “wild beast that drives every kind of electorate crazy and sends the political class home.” According to him, while Orbán has had constant clashes with Brussels on issues such as immigration or LGBTQ+ rights, never before has his electorate turned against him so aggressively. Looking ahead, the expert warns that this trend could have consequences across the Atlantic.
Excerpt from the interview:
-In fact, today we will move to the second part the topic of the war, the situation and all the developments that are happening these days and these hours in the Middle East, to make way in the first part for another very important development that has been the main news of the last few days. I am talking about the elections and their somewhat surprising result in Hungary. Peter Magyar, as the Hungarians say, finally defeated Viktor Orban after 16 years in power. Can this precedent be repeated in other authoritarian countries or not? We will discuss this, but not only. With security expert Ilir Kulla. Good evening, welcome.
-Now you told me in the introduction before we started that you studied in Hungary, so
Ilir Kulla : I have a doctorate.
-Okay, you also know the people in a way, in a way, besides politics.
Ilir Kulla: I know the Hungarians, yes. But at the time I was there, Orbán was in opposition and the socialists were in government. It was Gyurcsány who was a representative of one of the largest oligarchic families. His father-in-law at that time was the number two or three oligarch in Hungary.
-Tani, pyetjet e mia të para, pse fitoi kaq thellë Peter Magjari dhe pse humbi po kaq thellë Viktor Orban?
Ilir Kulla: Viktor Orbani është ë viktima e dytë e ë ë luftës së Bibi Netanyahut dhe të Donald Trumpit në Iran. Viktima e parë ishte Giorgia Meloni e cila jo rastësisht kësaj jave u distancua tërësisht nga nga lufta dhe nga Trumpi. Veçanërisht duke patur dhe debate publike të forta me njëri-tjetrin. E kemi analizuar këtu humbjen e referendumit të Melonit tre javë më parë. Sikundër edhe në referendumin e Melonit, në zgjedhjet në Hungari ne pamë që rinia me shumicë shkoi të votojë, gjë që s'kish ndodhur. Dhe i ktheu të gjithë numrat. Dhe në Hungari i ktheu dhe në fshat, në bastionet historike të ë të Fideszit, në zonat rurale. U votua kundër. Pse? Sepse fshati është ai që e vuan drejtpërdrejtë edhe çmimin e gazit edhe çmimin e naftës në Hungari, sepse Hungaria ka një industri bujqësore dhe një zhvillim bujqësor unik në në Evropë. Kjo ka qenë arsyeja pse vazhdimisht Viktor Orbani fitonte. Ë, në mënyrë të vazhdueshme sondazhet e kanë dhënë opozitën, ë ose domethënë koalicionin opozitar të përfaqësuar nga Peter Magjar në ë gjashtë-tetë muajt e fundit e kanë dhënë përpara.
Po as Peter Magjar nuk e priste, nuk e priste këtë diferencë dhe kjo është diferenca e 45 ditëve luftë. Ku çmimet dhe inflacioni e çmendi ë gjithë elektoratin, me të drejtë. Dhe këtu na përsëritet ajo që kemi parë katër vite më përpara. Lufta në Ukrainë dhe inflacioni ë dhe çmendja e tregjeve në luftë, luftës në Ukrainë para katër vitesh, tronditi dhe pastroi gjithë klasën politike në Evropë. Në fund edhe në Amerikë, madje dhe ardhja e Trumpit në pushtet nuk do të kishte qenë e tillë në qoftë se s'do të kishim pasur ë, në qoftë se Amerika s'do kishte problemin më të madh të inflacionit. Dhe pas një vit e gjysëm në pushtet të Donald Trumpit, me luftën në ë Iran, ë, ne kemi goditjen e drejtpërdrejtë elektoralisht për dy njerëzit më të investuar të Magës dhe të Donald Trumpit në në Evropë, Giorgia Melonit dhe Viktor Orbanit.
Giorgia Meloni with the referendum, Viktor Orbani with direct power. Viktor Orbani even more so because the vice president of Gji, who is also Maga's representative in the Republicans, went and campaigned for him, was personally involved in this campaign and this all corresponded to a vote against. Considering that when I say a vote against, it means that a part of the votes that were once for Viktor Orbani were taken by Magyar who had a history in the past with Fidesz, with the center-right party in Ukraine. And, and they went and joined a broad opposition coalition to send Viktor Orban home, who beyond the clash with the EU for the last four years in the war on the issue of the Ukraine-Russia war, has been constantly in conflict with the Brussels authorities and the Brussels bureaucracy on topics such as immigration, on topics such as free trade, on topics such as LGBT, and many topics that are popular in Europe today. But it has never happened that the electorate behaved so aggressively with Viktor Orban, that Viktor Orban's own electorate would hit him in this kind of way.
Add to this the stories of accusations of corruption or scandals and so on. But I think that the elections in Hungary showed one thing, that inflation is a wild animal that drives any kind of electorate and any kind of political class crazy and sends it home. In this regard, I think that if the war in Iran continues and if this trend of increasing inflation throughout the world, I think that in November, we are still far ahead of November, but in November and the Republicans themselves in America could be punished by the electorate because, beyond the fact that Donald Trump had committed that he would not make any more wars.
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