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France is not alone. EU diplomats say Germany, the Netherlands and Italy also insist that the difficult and "merit-based" process must be respected without exceptions for geopolitical reasons...
Ursula von der Leyen's vision of a significantly enlarged European Union, including Ukraine, is facing a strong obstacle: many current member states are unwilling to open this debate.
Fears of giving populist forces a leg up, the risk of difficult national referendums for any new country seeking membership, and a collective, problematic experience with Hungary since its accession in 2004 are all contributing to the hesitation of some EU capitals, according to nine European diplomats and officials who spoke to POLITICO. No other country has joined the union since Croatia joined in 2013.
The admission of new members, or “enlargement” as it is known in European terminology, a process strongly pushed by European Commission President von der Leyen, was expected to be on the agenda of an EU summit in Nicosia, Cyprus, later this month. However, in a sign of a lack of enthusiasm from leaders, the issue is now unlikely to be addressed, according to a senior EU official involved in the preparations. France’s Minister Delegate for European Affairs, Benjamin Haddad, told POLITICO that “ enlargement must remain a demanding and merit-based process to guarantee its success and credibility . ”
The main concern among governments is the political backlash any leader who brings the issue of new member states into the national debate could face, according to three diplomats and a senior official involved in the enlargement process. They, like other sources in this article, requested anonymity because of the confidential nature of the discussions.
One of the fears mentioned is a repeat of the “Polish hydraulics” debate, which dominated the discourse in many EU countries before Poland’s accession in 2004. At the time, some politicians argued that cheaper labor from Poland would replace higher-paid jobs in Western Europe.
"The same semi-populist and semi-xenophobic arguments that we heard about the Poles are very likely to be heard about the Ukrainians and any other candidate. Who are these people? What will they do in this club? Will they come to take our jobs?" said a diplomat from a mid-sized EU country.
Lack of willpower
This concern is particularly acute in France, which by law must hold a referendum on the admission of any new member. A vote on Ukraine could affect the campaign of populist right-wing leader Jordan Bardella, who is leading in the first round of the 2027 presidential election against center-right rival Edouard Philippe, according to polls.
However, France is not alone. EU diplomats say that Germany, the Netherlands and Italy also insist that the difficult and "merit-based" process must be respected without exceptions for geopolitical reasons, even though they understand the pressure on countries like Ukraine and Moldova to join quickly.
“Of course we don’t want to weaken Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky … but the vast majority of member states have no appetite for this debate at the moment, ” said a senior diplomat from a major European country.
Péter Magyar's victory in Hungary's elections on Sunday, ending Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, revived hopes that Budapest might soften its long-standing opposition to Ukraine's membership. However, Magyar is expected to maintain the same stance as his predecessor, declaring in a lengthy press conference that he does not support an accelerated process for Kiev.
Another frequently mentioned concern is the EU’s experience with Hungary as an obstructive partner. The country, which joined the EU in 2004 as part of a group of ten states mainly from the former communist east, has faced persistent accusations of curbing democracy under Prime Minister Orbán. He has also maintained ties with Russia and blocked European support for Ukraine. The admission of new members increases the risk of introducing new “Trojan horses” that could use veto power, so the European Commission aims to “immunize” the enlargement process, for example by denying new countries veto power for several years after accession.
Taking into account the climate in the main EU capitals, von der Leyen declared on Monday, after Orbán's defeat, that she supports the abolition of the unanimity rule in the union, which currently gives any country the right to block the accession process of another state.
Geopolitical pressures
Even Montenegro, which has met almost all the criteria for membership, is facing obstacles, as EU countries have yet to agree on the next step: adopting a mandate for drafting an accession treaty. “The issue is still in negotiations, ” said an EU diplomat.
Three Montenegrin officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed disappointment at the lack of progress and cited France as one of the potential obstacles. French officials dispute this assessment, stressing that the concerns are broader and require a more in-depth debate on enlargement.
The current situation also poses challenges for Ukraine, which sees EU membership as a security guarantee against future Russian aggression. A possible peace agreement with Russia could include the prospect of EU membership as early as 2027 as an incentive for Ukrainian voters.
However, EU countries have been reluctant to admit Ukraine as early as next year. Ambassadors from member states strongly opposed a more radical approach to accelerating membership during a dinner in early March.
Ukraine's strongest backers, including Sweden and Denmark, are now pushing to conclude negotiations by the end of next year. But starting talks on an accession treaty requires approval from major EU countries, a step that remains elusive.
"We are not at that point yet," the senior EU official concluded.
Mos u beni megafoni i Rames! Politika shqipetare nuk ka interes qe shqiperia te integrohet dhe deshiron te denigroje EU.