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Shkruar nga Monitor
The numbers are important. But their quality and content are crucial. 400 million euros invested in apartments is not the same as 400 million euros in manufacturing or technology.
There's one thing public institutions do with admirable self-confidence: they celebrate macro figures. Every new report is accompanied by words like "record," "growth," "historic performance."
If judged solely by official communications, it would appear that the Albanian economy is a success story that is running smoothly, outperforming the entire region.
Foreign Direct Investments are no exception to this ritual of optimism. For the first 9 months of 2025, Foreign Direct Investments reached 1.208 billion euros, according to data from the Bank of Albania, with an increase of 4.4% compared to the previous year, a historical record, ... on paper.
But the economy is not just an Excel spreadsheet, and growth is not always synonymous with progress. It is enough to look at the composition of these investments to understand that the reality is more complex than the official narrative.
A third of the total, around 403 million euros, comes from real estate, that is, from the purchases of apartments by foreigners. Capital that enters the country, but does not create industry, does not increase productivity, and does not create value-added jobs.
On the contrary, it creates increased risks for speculation and capital flight, as soon as conditions change. The second sector with a weight in foreign investments, with 219 million euros, is financial and insurance activities, mainly capital increases by banks, dictated by regulatory requirements. The extractive industry, in third place, with 134 million euros, remains linked to the exploitation of natural resources, therefore without contributing to added value.
So, we have growth as a result of resource exploitation, but not necessarily sustainable structural development.
And here begins the second perception, that of investors.
The message coming from the Foreign Investors Association’s (FIAA) “White Paper 2025–2029” is less celebratory. FIAA President Balazs Revesz sums it up clearly: regulatory risk is an invisible tax and Albania is not only losing new investments to the region, but also risks a lack of expansion from existing investors.
This is an alarm that does not appear on the growth charts. Corruption, informality, legal uncertainty, frequent fiscal changes and judicial delays remain persistent obstacles. The message is even stronger: the problem is not just attracting new investors, but the fact that those already in the country are not expanding.
And this is perhaps the most worrying signal for an economy that aims for long-term growth and convergence with the EU.
An investor who does not expand is a silent signal of distrust. He does not leave, but he does not invest more either. And when expansion is shifted to another country in the region, the competitive advantage is not lost in theory, it is lost in practice, in jobs, in exports and in productivity, by taking capital elsewhere.
The list of concerns is familiar: frequent legal changes without consultation, delays in VAT reimbursement, court processes that last for years, a lack of qualified labor, and an administration that is often seen as an obstacle, not a partner.
So, we have two parallel perceptions. One, that of macro figures that are growing. The other, that of investors who are looking for stability, predictability, and a more competitive climate.
The numbers are important. But their quality and content are crucial. 400 million euros invested in apartments is not the same as 400 million euros in manufacturing or technology.
Increasing bank capital is not the same as opening an exporting factory. And selling natural resources is not the same as building a high-productivity economy.
Capital, in fact, does not follow declarations, but real market conditions. And in the regional competition for investment, the difference is not made by press conferences, but by reforms that guarantee stability, functional justice and an administration that facilitates business. Above all, the economy must have space for everyone, because the economy is not made to order.
Reality is one. But perceptions are two. And the market, in the end, decides on only one./ MONITOR
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