FLASH
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Tensions between Iran and the US are escalating. As Tehran adds fuel to the fire, an expert explains the strategy behind it and warns of the consequences...
The timing makes it even stranger: On Wednesday, the US military shot down an Iranian drone that had come dangerously close to a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. This came two days before scheduled talks between Iran and the US.
Tensions between the two countries have been rising for weeks, with speculation about an imminent US military strike on Iran rife. The talks, which will take place in Oman instead of Turkey on Friday after some debate, are aimed at easing tensions. The main focus for the US side will be Iran's nuclear program: the US wants to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
Drone was a provocation ahead of nuclear talks with the US
How is the drone attack on an American aircraft carrier interpreted in this uncertain situation?
"The Iranian regime wants to send two messages. Domestically: 'we are strong,' and internationally: 'we can also defend ourselves,'" explains Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project, in an interview with the Frankfurter Rundschau.
However, in this tense situation, Tehran is playing with fire.
"It already has the potential to be suicidal. Or to put it another way: you have to ask whether they have lost their minds," says Schindler, adding "flying a drone so close is clearly a provocation."
Shortly after the drone flight, Iranian ships also provoked an American tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. This was also a similar signal: we can disrupt global energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz carries, among other things, almost all of Qatar's liquefied natural gas and a large part of Saudi Arabia's oil exports. The move fits the general tactics of the Iranian leadership, says Schindler: "They are playing their usual game: delay and threaten."
The main players are the Pasdaran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
They have exclusive control over Iran's drone and missile program and are also responsible for securing the Strait of Hormuz. These were deliberate provocations by the Revolutionary Guard.
Now the leadership is making sure Friday's negotiations are as complicated as possible.
"First, they change the location from Istanbul to Oman. Then they propose a strictly bilateral meeting without Omani mediation. And they announce that they clearly do not want to discuss their missile program," explains expert Schindler, adding that "the regime is a master at negotiating in a way that ideally never leads to an agreement."
The regime's hope is that Trump will eventually lose interest.
"But maybe he will also lose patience. Then there will be a military attack," the expert warns.
Delaying tactics are also intended to ensure that Trump will not be president forever.
"Any other president would be less willing to launch a military operation against Iran. Democrats certainly wouldn't do that, and neither would someone like JD Vance, an isolationist who would reduce US foreign policy actions," the expert warns. /Adapted from Fr.de/
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