FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 72 percent in 1999 to about 57 percent today, while other developed country currencies and gold have gained ground...
Confidence, especially international confidence, is fragile and requires constant care in the management of monetary and fiscal policy, warned a US Federal Reserve official in 1961. More than six decades later, this warning seems relevant again, as the dollar faces a new climate of uncertainty in global markets. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department remain the main guarantors of the US currency, but the possible appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Fed, if confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell in May, is being seen by investors as an additional factor of uncertainty. Currency markets have already reacted, partially halting the decline of the dollar, which has lost about 10 percent of its value since the beginning of 2025.
The strength of the dollar and the international credibility of the United States are not the same thing, but they are increasingly linked through America’s appeal as an investment destination. The current climate is characterized by growing concerns abroad about dollar-denominated assets, fueled by trade tensions, confrontational attitudes toward allies, and the reversal of decades of trade liberalization. Meanwhile, the structure of foreign investment in the United States has changed significantly: central bank foreign exchange reserves account for a smaller and smaller share of demand for dollars, while investors have shifted toward riskier assets, primarily U.S. stocks.
The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 72 percent in 1999 to about 57 percent today, while other developed-country currencies and gold have gained ground. However, this does not mean that demand for dollars has disappeared, but that it has shifted from a logic of safety to one of profit. Today, US stocks account for a record 58 percent of US assets owned by foreigners, almost triple the level after the global financial crisis.
This trend reflects the success of American companies and improving macroeconomic policies in many developing countries, but it also makes the dollar more sensitive to market fluctuations. In the past year, returns from American stocks have lagged those of other global markets, as investors have started to increase their currency hedging, selling dollars and putting additional pressure on the currency. Even US Treasury bonds, traditionally considered a safe haven, are no longer playing the same role in times of tension, as volatility often stems from US politics itself.
Although many investors continue to see the US as an irreplaceable market, some capital is gradually being redirected to Europe and Asia, while rising bond yields in other G7 countries are making competition fiercer. Analysts warn that the main risk to the dollar is not the emergence of a rival currency, but the loss of the advantage of US stocks and the deterioration of the perception of the US as a safe haven.
In this context, the figure of Kevin Warsh is seen as a key element for the future of the dollar. Known as a “hawk” on monetary policy, but recently with softer tones, he is considered more political than his predecessors and focused on shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. His relationship with President Donald Trump and its impact on the central bank’s independence remain open questions. Although the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, analysts emphasize that this status is not guaranteed and must be constantly earned. Today, the American currency seems more exposed than at any other moment in recent history. / Adapted “Pamphlet” from “The Economist”
Po si logjike dobesimi I dollarit rrit ekonomine amerikane. Sepse ne qofte se dua të blej nje mall qe kushton 100 euro dhe 100 dollare do shkoj ta blej 100 dollare sepse per mua dollari eshte me I lire. Pra me nje fjale amerika do heqe mallin stok dhe per rrjedhim do reuse prodhimin qe ti rimbushe magazinat
Ne se vlera e nje malli do ishe e njejte ndodh,ne se vlerat ne euro jane me te vogla se vlera ne dollar ,atehere behet bilanc edhe per garanci te tjera qe shoqerojne nje mall
Të njëjtin mendim kam edhe unë me komentuesin më sipër . Unë kam vënë re që her pas here dollari amerikan pëson rënie. Dhe kjo rënie ka pasur si qëllim pastrimin e magazinave nga stoqet e mallit . Amerika është një shtet, ku çdo gjë lëviz me shpejtësi , nuk ka dështime se nuk i pranon ato, atje vetëm ecet përpara me plane afatgjata që bota i kupton me vonesë.