FLASH
Shkruar nga Gavin Mortimer
There may be another reason why Macron is worried about what peace in Ukraine might bring. It's an anxiety shared by others in Europe...
Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris to discuss “the conditions for a just and lasting peace.” But is the French leader nervous about what peace in Ukraine could mean for Europe and for France?
In an interview with a Sunday newspaper, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot declared that "peace is achievable if Vladimir Putin abandons his illusory hope of rebuilding the Soviet Empire by first subduing Ukraine."
Macron initially showed little enthusiasm for the 28-point peace plan put forward by the US and Russia, warning that Putin should not be trusted. The plan has since been modified and Macron appears more willing to accept a peace deal, especially in light of the corruption scandal that has engulfed Ukraine in recent days.
Critics on both the left and right in France have accused Macron of exploiting the war in Ukraine for his own ends; first for electoral advantage in 2022 and 2024. And more recently to keep himself relevant. Since his centrist party was defeated in third place in last year’s parliamentary elections, Macron has little domestic authority. Last week, a prominent conservative commentator labeled the president a “warmonger.”
There may be another reason why Macron is worried about what peace in Ukraine might bring. It is an anxiety shared by others in Europe.
In June 2022, 4 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock expressed his fears about weapons being sent by Western governments to help defend Ukraine. "The high availability of weapons during the current conflict will result in the proliferation of illicit weapons in the post-conflict phase," Stock said.
Stock urged countries to carefully review their weapons tracking databases and ensure they don't end up in the wrong hands. "It's going to happen, I have no doubt about it," Stock said, adding that "criminals are already, right here as we speak, focusing on this."
The French, in particular, fear a repeat of what happened after the war in the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. Towards the end of that decade, armed robbers in France began using Kalashnikovs, the assault rifle better known as the AK47.
Within a few years, they became the weapon of choice for drug cartels, so widespread in Western Europe that they changed hands for a few hundred euros. The weapons remain a threat: 30 of the 49 people killed in the war on drugs in Marseille in 2023 were killed by AK47s.
The Kalashnikov was also used by the Al-Qaeda cell that killed Charlie Hebdo staff and four shoppers at a Jewish store in Paris in January 2015. The killers were also equipped with a rocket launcher, which they did not use. The men who killed 130 Parisians in November 2015 on behalf of the Islamic State did so using a Kalashnikov.
One wounded survivor of that evening explained how "Kalashnikov bullets are very specific... they explode inside the body, which makes physical repair difficult and poses a real surgical challenge."
France is more aware of the dangers of black market weapons now than it was 30 years ago. That's why the government lobbied hard for its man to be elected as the new head of Interpol last week.
Lucas Philippe, a Frenchman with extensive international experience in the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking, beat off challenges from Turkish and Ethiopian candidates to become the new chief. "Our enemy is organized crime and terrorism," the 53-year-old Philippe declared after winning the vote.
Philippe's predecessor was an Emirati, Major General Ahmed Nasser Al-Raisi, who was accused of human rights abuses during his time as inspector general of the UAE's Ministry of Interior. Raisi denies the allegations against him. Responding to Al-Raisi's victory in the 2021 elections, US Senator Roger Wicker said that Interpol had "become a tool in the hands of despots and fraudsters who seek to punish dissidents and political opponents".
The head of Interpol in 2016 was Chinese Meng Hongwei. But two years after his appointment, he was arrested by Beijing and charged with bribery. In 2020, Hongwei was sentenced to 13 and a half years in prison.
Philippe is the first European to lead Interpol since his compatriot, Mireille Ballestrazzi (who was the first woman in the post) led the organization between 2012 and 2016.
Shortly before being appointed Interpol chief, Philippe said that if he won the vote, he would “strengthen operational coordination among the 196 member countries.” He also promised to increase Interpol’s “forecasting capacity.”
Predicting what will happen to the military equipment currently in Ukraine after the conflict will be part of this challenge. But it will also require cooperation and determination from Brussels and European governments.
The omens are not good. If Europe cannot protect its borders from people traffickers, then what chance does it have of protecting them from arms traffickers? /Adapted from The Spectator/
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