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Emigration and the decline in fertility over the years are key factors that are affecting the aging of the workforce in the country and the deepening gap in businesses due to staff shortages.
The phenomenon is global. The Economist magazine, in a recent article, analyzed the causes of the increasing aging of the population due to the decline in fertility.
By 2050, a decline of 340 million people in the working-age population, which comprises the age groups from 15 to 64, is projected.
The decline will extend to countries in the Americas and Europe, including large Asian countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea.
The only exceptions to the phenomenon of an aging workforce would be the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, where the rates of decline in birth rates were very low and the arrival of the demographic transition is still several decades away.
How has the number of working-age population changed in the last decade in Albania?
The results of the 2023 Population Census showed that the working-age population in the country had suffered a deep contraction compared to 2011.
The total number of working-age population from 1,903,987 people in 2011 reached 1,555,080 people in 2023, which represents a decrease of about 349 thousand people or 18.3%.
The decline in the working-age population is higher than the contraction in the total population of almost 14% that resulted in the 2023 Census compared to the 2011 Census results.
Referring to the data, it is found that the decrease in the number of working-age population is most pronounced in young age groups from 15 to 29 years old.
For the first age group, from 15 to 19 years old, the decrease is 46.8% compared to the results of the 2011 Census.
For the 20 to 24 age group, the decline is 41.2%. While for the 25 to 29 age group, the contraction is 24.9%.
The decline in the number of working-age population in younger age groups, according to experts, was assessed to have come from the massive emigration of young people and the decline in fertility in the last decade.
While in the older age groups from 55 to 64 years old, there is an increase in the working age population.
The highest increase is for the age group from 60 to 64 years. The increase is 48.8%. For the age group from 55 to 64 years (the age group close to retirement age) the number of working age population has increased by 9.6%.
According to experts, this increase indicates an aging of the active population, not because there are more births, but because those who were young in 2011 have now moved into these age groups.
INSTAT data on the labor force participation rate in Albania in the period 2019–2024 show a trend of aging of the workforce.
The most active group in the labor market remains the 25-54 age group, with a high and increasing participation rate, from 83.2% in the first quarter of 2019, reaching 87.6% at the end of 2024.
At the same time, the participation of the 55-64 age group has increased significantly – from 62.9% in 2019 to over 75% in 2024, demonstrating an increasing presence of older workers in the labor market.
Meanwhile, young people (15-24 years old) continue to have low and unstable participation, fluctuating from 32 to 40%.
This indicates difficulties for this age group to integrate into the labor market, which may be related to education, unemployment, emigration, or the lack of appropriate opportunities for this category.
An interesting development is the increase in participation in the over 65 age group, where in the first two quarters of 2024 levels of over 25% are reached, a significant increase compared to around 14-16% in 2019–2020.
In addition, the 20-64 year old group has also shown steady growth, reaching over 81% participation at the end of 2024, which confirms a general trend of expanding the engagement of the working-age population./ Monitor/
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