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Italy have missed out on a place at the 2026 World Cup after being knocked out by Bosnia in the play-off final. This was the third consecutive elimination for the Blues at this stage, confirming a difficult period for one of football's historic national teams.
However, an unexpected development could change the scenario.
The Iran withdrawal hypothesis
According to reports, there is a possibility that Iran will withdraw or boycott the tournament. If that happens, FIFA will have to decide on a replacement.
FIFA regulations (article 6, point 7) give the Federation the exclusive right to select another team. Italy is mentioned as one of the possible candidates, as it is ranked 12th in the FIFA rankings.
However, selection is not necessarily based solely on ranking.
Italy or an Asian representative?
Another option being discussed is replacing Iran with a team from the same geographical area. In this case, the United Arab Emirates are seen as a possible candidate, after they were eliminated by Iraq in the playoff.
The final decision will be made by the FIFA Council, a 37-member body headed by president Gianni Infantino and with representatives from all confederations, including UEFA.
The idea of a "superplayoff"
Another scenario mentioned by international media, including The Athletic, is the organization of an intercontinental "superplayoff." This mini-tournament could include some of the teams that lost in the playoff finals and could take place in the United States, before the start of the World Cup.
This option would create additional competition for the vacant position.
Deadlines and decision-making
According to FIFA regulations, any national team that withdraws from the World Cup less than 30 days before the first match faces a minimum fine of 500,000 Swiss francs.
The deadline for a possible decision by Iran and for FIFA's intervention is considered to be May 13. However, for organizational reasons, a decision is expected to be made earlier.
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