FLASH
Shkruar nga Salvatore Rossi
The international order has entered a new era. The world is being reshaped by the rivalry between America and China. At this historic crossroads, Europe can no longer just sit back and watch, but must find the strength and react to avoid being crushed between two giants...
Today's meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping carries a weight that goes beyond the importance of a protocol ceremony. It clearly shows us through the force of example the current and future state of international relations (or geopolitics, as it is commonly preferred to say) and their inextricable link to the economy.
This summit also shows how radically the balances have changed in recent decades. It should not surprise us that a political summit between heads of state is so closely linked to the economy.
Beyond the fact that trade and business will take center stage in the Trump-Xi talks - as the retinue of oligarchs accompanying the American president attests - history teaches us that relations between nations are guided by two main motives: identity ("us" versus "them") and economic interest.
These two poles are interdependent, and the most recent evidence of this is found precisely in the movements of the second term of the American president. Donald Trump, this champion of identity politics, has turned the US trade deficit into a battle horse, selling it as evidence of a “global conspiracy” against America.
This prompted him to declare a "tariff war", especially against China, which covers most of this deficit. In turn, Beijing responded by blocking the export of rare earth minerals, vital elements for high technology, which is also the pride of American industry.
Their first meeting, six months ago, served only to lower the temperature somewhat, without producing any real solution. In fact, Trump and his circle are touching a real wound: the huge imbalance in America's current accounts.
But they are completely failing to diagnose it and are trying to cure it with a harmful therapy, such as tariffs. As Martin Wolf pointed out in the Financial Times, this problem is both real and acute. The bitter truth is that Americans save far less than they need to finance the investments their inexhaustible capacity for innovation requires. As a result, they suck up capital from the rest of the world, which is more than happy to invest the money in the most powerful and secure country. But when Americans save little, it means they consume a lot, becoming a “black hole” for imports.
Thus, the circle closes: the United States piles up debt on top of debt. For the moment, everyone seems happy, debtor and creditor alike. But history teaches us that such imbalances do not last forever.
Sooner or later they explode, leading to either bloody conflicts or devastating economic crises. To avoid this end, Americans would have to tighten their belts and increase savings, an operation politically impossible without a catastrophe first occurring.
Trump and the "Trumpists" don't even want to understand these basic economic principles. They are content with the tariff war, which ultimately hits their own voters through rising prices and inflation.
And this brings us to the big change of the last few decades. Once, economic policy aimed only at the well-being of citizens and the distribution of wealth. Today, it is inextricably linked to national security.
A country's security today depends directly on how competitive its economy is and how much advantage it has in producing new technologies. The post-war world order, based on free trade, globalization, and the open flow of ideas under the umbrella of international institutions, is disintegrating.
At that time, Europe was not very concerned about security. Because that was the duty of NATO and, above all, of America as a military hegemon. But today, with the galloping rise of China, the aggressiveness of Russia and the internal crisis of the US itself, this parental protection is fading.
Europe is waking up to a new world where the “wonders” of the Trump administration are shaking the foundations of the West. Even if this administration were to be voted out tomorrow, the process of changing international relations would not stop.
Therefore, Europe has no other choice. It must reorient its economic policies towards protection and technological competition, returning uncomplicatedly to the industrial policies it once despised.
The confrontation between China and America will be long, but the lesson for us is clear: either we will become players, or we will remain mere spectators of our own downfall./ Pamphlet from "La Stampa"
Lini një Përgjigje