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Shkruar nga PamfletiCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly sees US-Israel war as 'historic opportunity' to rebuild Middle East
Saudi Arabia has asked the US to step up attacks on Iran, a Saudi intelligence source confirmed, as it considers a decision on whether to join the war directly.
The Saudi source confirmed to the New York Times that the kingdom's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has urged Donald Trump not to stop his war against Iran and that the US-Israeli campaign represented a "historic opportunity" to reshape the Middle East.
The intelligence source said Riyadh was not just calling for the military campaign to continue, but to intensify it. Trump appeared to confirm the report about the crown prince's role, telling reporters on Tuesday: "Yes, he's a fighter. He's fighting with us."
There are no reports of active Saudi military involvement in the nearly four-week-old war so far, but a Saudi political analyst said the kingdom is likely to take this step if current Pakistan-led peace efforts fail.
“What matters now is Iran’s decision,” said Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical analyst. “If Iran engages seriously, there is still a way to contain the escalation. If it rejects the conditions and continues its attacks, the threshold for Saudi action will be crossed.”
Alhamed added that Saudi Arabia is "not reacting impulsively."
"It is calibrating its response and preparing for a scenario where escalation, if it occurs, will be deliberate and decisive," he said, adding that Saudi Arabia "has not pushed for war."
"It has tried to avoid being drawn into it while keeping all options on the table," he said.
Saudi Arabia has been attacked by Iranian drones, as part of Tehran's response to the US-Israeli attack on February 28. A drone attack a week ago hit an oil refinery in Yanbu on the Saudi Red Sea coast.
Saudi Arabia’s ability to transport its oil exports by pipeline across the Red Sea has made it less vulnerable than its neighbors to Iran’s tactic of imposing a near-total blockade on oil tanker shipments leaving the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The attack on Yanbu signaled an Iranian warning that it could threaten that economic lifeline as well.
This threat would be multiplied if Iran's allies in Yemen, the Houthi movement, were to join the war with their own arsenal of missiles.
"I believe that Saudi Arabia still maintains a cautious neutrality in the Iran-Israel-US war," Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defense expert, told Agence France-Presse. But he added: "If the Houthis strike Saudi assets, Riyadh could move towards defensive support of the coalition or limited retaliation."
Saudi Arabia and Iran, claiming leading roles in the Sunni and Shiite Islamic worlds respectively, have long been regional rivals. According to a leaked US State Department cable, the crown prince's uncle, King Abdullah, asked the US military in 2008 to "cut off the head of the snake," a reference to the theocratic regime in Tehran.
Khalid Aljabri, a Saudi commentator in exile, said that in recent years the kingdom's preference had been for a negotiated solution to the standoff over Iran's nuclear and missile programs. However, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the joint attack amid talks focused on nuclear restrictions.
"In this scenario, when war is going to happen anyway and escalation is happening anyway, a partially degraded Iran, a wounded lion, would be more unpredictable and more dangerous. The policy was not to start the war, but if you start it, finish the job," said Aljabri, who is also a US-based cardiologist and the son of Saad Al Jabri, a former Saudi security chief who served as an intelligence liaison to Washington until he fell out of favor with Prince Mohammed in 2015.
The crown prince solidified his power by cultivating a close relationship with Trump, but will now have to reconsider Saudi Arabia's US support for its security, observers have argued.
"Mohammed bin Salman has lost all his investments over the past few years," said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "He invested financially in Trump and the Trump family, in his corporation and in the White House, but ultimately the views of the Saudis and the entire Gulf have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu."
Prince Mohammed had begun to recalibrate his position after a missile attack on a Saudi oil facility in 2019, which Riyadh blamed on Iran. The US, under Trump's first presidency, offered verbal support but did not carry out the retaliations the Saudis sought.
Four years later, Saudi Arabia attempted to ease tensions by signing a surprise deal with Iran to restore mutual diplomatic relations, a deal brokered by China.
“After the US refused to protect them, the Saudis turned to a tight embrace with Iran, hoping it would not attack them in a conflict,” Geranmayeh said. “Now that the war has begun and MBS has lost his bet that Iran would not retaliate, he is said to have asked the US to end the Iranian threat once and for all. So Saudi Arabia is now faced with the dilemma of whether to get more involved.”
The United Arab Emirates has seen its oil exports completely blocked and has openly called for a decisive military defeat of Iran. The UAE ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday: “A simple ceasefire is not enough. We need a definitive outcome that addresses the full range of Iran’s threats.”
Saudi Arabia, with its Red Sea export option, still has something to lose and has not openly called for more bombing. Its active military participation could bring a more punitive Iranian response targeting its Red Sea oil pipeline, quite possibly in collaboration with the Houthis.
"Once the bombs stop falling, there will be deep thinking in Riyadh," Geranmayeh said. "It's not about the US leaving, but about having more opportunities."
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