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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The conflict in the Persian Gulf has caused huge losses, but also benefits for energy exporters.
The first month of aggression against Iran has had serious consequences, first and foremost for the economies of the Gulf countries. Oil and gas production has been reduced, as have tourism, aviation, logistics, manufacturing and financial services. Infrastructure and many production capacities have been destroyed and cannot be easily restored.
Daily financial losses in March are estimated at around $700 million from oil alone. In the long term, investor confidence and foreign labor have been damaged, writes Ivan Nikolić in his analysis "Some Economic Aspects of the First Month of Aggression against Iran", published in the magazine MAT.
He points out that, as in any war, while some lose, others gain, as the conflict creates positive effects for certain economies. According to estimates, the increase in energy prices alone has brought Russia benefits of about $700 million per day.
The United States and other oil-exporting countries not involved in the conflict zone, such as Canada and Australia, are also beneficiaries, as are smaller countries such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, as the main buyers of their energy are European countries.
The Strait of Hormuz is the linchpin of this economic story. Its closure is the direct cause of price disruptions for many products. Initially, attention focused on energy, due to the well-known role of the Gulf countries, but the negative impact of the war on the global economy is much broader.
"The Strait of Hormuz is not only a 'cork' for oil, it is an obstacle for many industries that are not directly related to energy, but depend on the physical flow of goods from the Gulf. Therefore, safe passage through this strait is an essential condition for the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement, which entered into force on April 8," Nikolic emphasizes.
According to some estimates, a 10% increase in oil prices reduces global domestic output by just over 0.1% and increases global inflation by 0.2 percentage points. The impact is asymmetric: Europe is hit hardest, followed by South and Southeast Asia.
The further escalation of the conflict and damage to infrastructure in the Gulf countries has also had consequences for secondary products, which, although they have a small weight in global GDP, are essential for its functioning.
The Strait of Hormuz is not only an energy gateway, but also an industrial and agricultural one for the Middle East. Its blockade, now in its second month, is expected to cause a chain reaction in the prices of food, metals and high-tech equipment.
The Gulf region contributes about 8–10% to global primary aluminum production. One of the main problems is the shutdown of the Qatalum plant in Qatar, with an annual capacity of about 630,000 tons. Returning to full production is expected to take at least six months. Europe imports about 30% of its aluminum from the Gulf, while the US imports over 20%, in a market that was already in deficit.
The war has also caused a global shortage of chemical fertilizers. The region accounts for 16–35% of world exports of urea and about 30% of ammonia. Sulfur is needed for the production of phosphate fertilizers, with the Gulf representing about 45% of global trade.
Furthermore, Qatar is the world's second-largest producer of helium, holding almost four-fifths of the global market. Helium is essential for the production of chips and optical cables, so its shortage directly affects the technology industry.
The conflict also threatens another important sea route – the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is key to trade between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal.
Closing the Suez Canal would cause major trade disruptions, lengthening sea routes around Africa and increasing costs. However, the direct impact on global energy would be smaller than that of Hormuz.
At the same time, blocking both straits would push Europe into a severe economic crisis. Rising transport costs and delays would increase import prices and cause shortages, forcing the reorganization of supply chains and permanently increasing the costs of global trade.
The war has already fueled inflationary pressures. In March, the eurozone recorded its highest inflation rate since January 2025. In Germany, inflation reached 2.8%, in France 1.9% and in Spain 3.3%. Inflation is also expected to rise in the US due to the energy crisis.
Central banks have so far not reacted strongly to the initial shock, which has been cushioned through the use of strategic oil and gas reserves and fiscal measures.
As for the European Union, the cost of the war has been rising rapidly. The President of the European Commission stated that the first 10 days cost 3 billion euros, while by March 29, 2026 this figure had reached 6 billion euros just from the increase in the price of energy imports. /Adapted Pamphlet /
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