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US President Donald Trump has taken on the role of Republicans' chief spokesman on the cost of living issue in an election year, but a Reuters analysis shows that his message on inflation often conflicts with the reality experienced by many Americans.
In five speeches on the economy since December, Trump has declared nearly 20 times that inflation has been “beaten” or significantly reduced, while he has claimed nearly 30 times that prices are falling. However, these statements do not fully match the official data and the daily experience of citizens, who continue to pay more for food and basic expenses.
Inflation has hovered around 3% over the past year, down from a peak of over 9% in 2022, but prices have not returned to their previous levels. For example, the price of ground beef has risen by about 18% since Trump took office a year ago, while ground coffee has become about 29% more expensive. Economists point out that lower inflation means slower price increases, not necessarily lower prices.
According to Reuters, a significant portion of Trump's speeches have not been devoted to the economy, but to other issues, including immigration, attacks on political opponents and various foreign policy topics. The analysis shows that, in about five hours of speeches, the president has frequently deviated from the topic of prices, spending about half the time on issues not directly related to the cost of living.
Republican strategists told Reuters that this approach risks creating a credibility gap for Trump and the Republican Party, especially ahead of the November midterm elections, when control of Congress will be at stake. Polls show that many voters are unhappy with the way the economy is being managed.
"The president cannot continue to make claims that are easily refuted by the facts, especially when it hurts Republicans running in strong districts or races," Republican strategist Rob Godfrey told Reuters, adding that Trump needs to be more disciplined in his messaging.
The White House, for its part, is defending the president's line. Its spokespeople have stressed that Trump's focus on immigration is directly related to the argument that illegal immigration puts pressure on public services, the housing market and wages. The administration also argues that Trump is trying to correct economic problems inherited from the previous administration.
Trump has unveiled several measures and promises to lower the cost of living, including tax cuts that took effect last month, eliminating taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security payments, and plans to lower mortgage interest rates and housing prices. He has also mentioned agreements with health insurance companies to lower drug prices.
However, several economists interviewed by Reuters estimate that most of these measures will not have a significant impact on the daily lives of American families until November. Some proposals, such as temporarily capping credit card interest rates, could also have unintended consequences for lower-income families.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, about 35% of Americans approve of the way Trump is managing the economy, a slight improvement compared to recent months, but significantly below the level of support he had at the beginning of his term.
Former economic officials note that Trump risks repeating the mistake made by Joe Biden in 2024, when his administration emphasized positive macroeconomic indicators but failed to convince voters that it was truly understanding the price pressure on their daily lives.
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