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According to a US intelligence report, the escalation of Israeli operations in Lebanon could jeopardize the US-brokered peace deal with Iran and strain relations between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump...
US intelligence agencies have warned President Donald Trump's administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could take actions that would undermine efforts for a lasting peace agreement between the United States and Iran, The Washington Post reported.
According to intelligence reports, Israel appears determined to continue military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a development that would contradict a key element of the recent agreement, which provides for a cessation of fighting in the country. US officials, quoted by the newspaper, said that one of the most recent reports was distributed this week.
The Washington Post notes that the US intelligence assessment comes at a time of rising tensions between the Netanyahu government and the Trump administration. US officials have publicly warned Israel to avoid strikes against Hezbollah.
On Friday, Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon in response to a Hezbollah drone attack that killed four Israeli soldiers. At the same time, US and Iranian officials announced the postponement of talks expected to take place in Switzerland, while US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to the country.
The danger to Netanyahu-Trump relations
According to the American newspaper, if Netanyahu expands military operations in Lebanon, he would not only jeopardize the implementation of the agreement signed between the US and Iran, but could also damage the relationship with Trump, who has played an important role in his political career.
A new US intelligence report concludes that Netanyahu's political survival, ahead of national elections expected to be held this fall in Israel, depends on his ability to show domestic opinion that he will not withdraw troops from Lebanon and that he remains willing to escalate the confrontation with Hezbollah.
The report also describes Israel's dissatisfaction with the terms of the peace memorandum promoted by Trump, which according to Israeli authorities weaken the strategy of maximum pressure on Tehran.
According to a former US official, Israel is concerned that the deal could limit its ability to defend itself against Hezbollah. On the other hand, Trump administration officials argue that the terms of the agreement do not prevent Israel from responding in the event of attacks and that completing the agreement remains a priority to avoid a global economic crisis and to ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The report warns that any ceasefire or Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon could be perceived in Israel as a political defeat for Netanyahu.
A senior Israeli government official, commenting on the US intelligence analysis, stated that Israel's military activity in Lebanon is aimed exclusively at protecting Israeli citizens from ongoing Hezbollah attacks.
However, according to another US official, even if Israel does not expand military operations to the outskirts of Beirut, its refusal to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon could seriously jeopardize the fragile agreement between the US and Iran.
"Continuing the military presence in parts of Lebanon is a formula for failure. Without a complete Israeli withdrawal, the return of clashes between the Israeli army and Hezbollah is almost inevitable," he was quoted as saying.
According to The Washington Post, President Trump has significant tools at his disposal to pressure Israel. The US could limit the supply of ammunition, aviation fuel and technical support, suspend the exchange of sensitive information or reduce the presence of US forces currently contributing to the defense of Israeli airspace.
The newspaper points out that American presidents have traditionally avoided using such measures, although similar steps have occasionally been taken during periods of tension with Israeli governments.
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