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“The biggest problem is the lack of trust.” This is how Middle East expert Andreas Böhm from the University of St. Gallen assesses today's negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman.
And there is no reason for confidence: the US has massively built up military forces in the Persian Gulf in recent weeks. The regime in Tehran has responded with threats and provocations. A new war threatens if negotiations fail today.
Tehran assumes that the failure of the talks and an escalation by US President Donald Trump are already planned, Middle East expert Böhm told the Frankfurter Rundschau.
"The Iranians believe that negotiations are simply a pretext to provoke a breakdown and then legitimize an attack," he added.
Americans share this distrust. The Trump administration believes "that Iran is simply playing for time and wants to drag out negotiations indefinitely."
But what is the purpose of the negotiations?
The expectations are "fundamentally different," according to Böhm. Iran wants to limit the talks strictly to the Iranian nuclear program and, according to the Middle East expert, is only willing to compromise on uranium enrichment.
What about the US? "The Americans want a comprehensive agreement, especially because Israel is insisting on the issue of missiles," he added.
Washington wants Tehran to limit its missile program. But that is a "no-go" for Iran, Böhm stresses.
"Missiles are the last remaining means of deterrence," the expert says.
Within range of Tehran's short- and medium-range missiles are not only all the Gulf states and Israel, but also the Strait of Hormuz, through which vast quantities of global oil are transported. If Iran abandons this, it will lose an important global bargaining chip.
Iran will also not stop its support for the "axis of resistance," i.e. anti-Israel militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, believes the expert from the University of St. Gallen.
"Basically, Khamenei would prefer to engage in war than abandon the foundations of his regime at the negotiating table," he added.
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